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4 Baylor Football X-Factors to Propel Bears to Victory Over Arizona State

Big plays, though not necessarily big players, all could be the X-Factor in tonight's Big 12 clash.
IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It's going to be a late night tonight with the end of the game expected to be around midnight in Waco. The time may not be a factor for the players as they've been preparing for this game all week, but several factors this week could lead the Bears to victory over the Sun Devils. From all three facets of the game, here are the things that could be the decisive factors of today's game.

Offense: DJ Lagway Shows Off His Legs

Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway (2) drops back to pass against the Colorado Buffaloes
Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway (2) drops back to pass against the Colorado Buffaloes during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

As the quarterback, DJ Lagway will have the most opportunity to directly impact the outcome of this game. We know that Lagway can throw the ball, as he's demonstrated in both of his starts this season. His running ability though will certainly act as the X-Factor in a Bears victory though. Lagway is 6'3" tall and 230 pounds of hard-to-take-down and quick-on-his-feet, if the ASU defense has to account for him running the ball as well as being able to air it out they could find themselves in for a long night.

Defense: A Defensive Touchdown, Pick-Six or a Scoop-and-Score

Baylor Bears defensive lineman Hosea Wheeler (0) and defensive end Jordan Mack (97) react after a play against Colorado
Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears defensive lineman Hosea Wheeler (0) and defensive end Jordan Mack (97) react after a play against the Colorado Buffaloes during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

So far this season the Bears defense has been smothering and stifling to the tune of 15 quarterback sacks and 36 tackles for loss. What the Bears don't have this season is a defensive touchdown, and that is precisely the kind of X-Factor that would lead Baylor to a win against the Sun Devils. Doesn't matter if it's a pick-six or a fumble recovery that leads to a touchdown, the Bears defense could certainly parlay that either of them even further dominance on the field.

Special Teams: Jayden McGowan Returns a Punt for a Touchdown

Baylor Bears wide receiver Jayden McGowan (15) scores a touchdown ahead of Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Sep 19, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears wide receiver Jayden McGowan (15) scores a touchdown ahead of Louisiana Tech Bulldogs defensive back Jordan McRae (0) during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

An X-Factor, a momentum shift, the play of the game; if Jayden McGowan gets to return a punt and has the right block in the right place, you'll be able to hear around 15 thousand Sun Devils fans collectively both gasp and groan. He's been close a few times this season from breaking free for a punt return touchdown, and McGowan has even stated that he wants one. Who could blame him? Turning a battle of field position and strategy into six points in about twice as many seconds would be the exact kind of spark the Bears could use to win against ASU.

Offense: Gavin Freeman Continues to be Gavin Freeman

Baylor Bears wide receiver Gavin Freeman (6) hurdles Colorado Buffaloes defensive back Naeten Mitchell (4)
Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears wide receiver Gavin Freeman (6) hurdles Colorado Buffaloes defensive back Naeten Mitchell (4) during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

From 12 catches in game one to a highlight of a hurdle last week, Gavin Freeman is playing some amazing football this season. It should come as no surprise if Freeman is targeted early and often, what is surprising is what Freeman is able to do with it after that. Elusive, footrace winning speed, and you never quite know just where he's going to be on the field when he catches it, Gavin Freeman has been an X-Factor for the Bears most of the season; it would be haphazard at best to think that trend won't continue against ASU.

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Brad Teague
BRAD TEAGUE

Brad is a writer and contributes to the Baylor Bears on SI, with aspirations to share his own unique thoughts and perspectives with fans. Whether through the facts and figures of the past or the untold potential and triumphs of the future, sports have always been a large influence on Brad's storytelling and life overall. His inspiration to write began while watching sports when he first noticed the highs and lows of each game, each quarter, each play; there's a story in each of them worth telling, and he wanted to tell them.

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