Five Reasons Baylor Beats Arizona State, Three Ways Baylor Loses
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With a late start (9:30 CT) and an even later finish (around midnight for the Waco faithful), Baylor is set to take on the Arizona State Sun Devils in Tempe, Arizona. While the Sun Devils seem to be favored based more on home field advantage rather than a player by player matchup, Baylor won't be expecting an easy win. In fact, there are several factors that can easily lead to a Bears loss on Saturday night.
Baylor Wins If:
The Bear defense shuts down ASU QB Cutter Boley: Boley only had 95 yards passing and two pick-sixes against Kansas. With how the Baylor defense has played this season, Boley should consider himself lucky if he's able to achieve anything better than that against the Bears. I expect that Boley won't be able to relax in the pocket the entire evening and that a quick-pass strategy may be implemented to keep Hosea Wheeler, Kyler Jordan, and the rest of the Bears' defense at bay.
DJ Lagway finally gets a full game's worth of healthy play: Injured early in game one against Auburn, sitting out the next two weeks, and for all intents and purposes a solid outing against Colorado. Lagway is going to have to use his feet not just to help the Bears in the running game, but doing so will start providing more "empty" spots in the ASU defense.
The Baylor receiving corps catches everything thrown their way: Between Gavin Freeman, Dre'lon Miller, Louis Brown IV, Jayden McGowan, Jadon Porter, Taz Williams Jr, and any other Bears receiver not currently named, they have the skill and ability to light up the scoreboard at a moment's notice. Look for completions to these names early and often if the Bears expect to win on Saturday.
Jayden McGowan returns a punt for a touchdown: This one is potentially more speculative, but McGowan is not only an electric receiver who leads the Bears in touchdown receptions this season, he's also Baylor's kick-returning specialist. While McGowan hasn't found the end zone yet this season in terms of punt returns, it's not that he hasn't been trying and isn't due for one. A punt return for a touchdown against Nick McLarty who ASU Coach Kenny Dillingham called "one of the best in the country" (after Baylor's own Palmer Williams, he would also say), would serve to demoralize the ASU crowd and, at the same time, add points to the board in Baylor's favor.
One of Baylor's running backs has a 100+ yard performance: It doesn't matter necessarily who the Bear running back is in the backfield as they all have their own unique brand of talents, what matters is a successful running game. The offensive line will need to be in sync providing a push and opening running lanes, and if they can do that, Baylor should see a victory against the Sun Devils.
Baylor Loses If:
DJ Lagway doesn't run: If Lagway spends the game standing idly in the pocket, it will either be a sign that ASU can't stop the passing game and Lagway doesn't need to run, or his ankle still isn't quite right. An immobile Lagway two games in a row could prove fatal for the game's final score if ASU's defense is able to get pressure on him to disrupt his rhythm.
Baylor's defense falls apart again in the third quarter but doesn't recover in the fourth quarter like they have so far this season: If you've watched the Bears play this season, the third and early fourth quarters of their games have been the ugliest that the defense has played. In those games however, the score was either within a score (as with Auburn) or already well in hand (during their three game stretch in Waco), Baylor can not afford to head into halftime tied or trailing ASU if the Bears' trend of being gashed up the middle of the field hasn't been remedied.
Third down conversions and yards per run: Both of these are stats that Baylor has struggled with this season and both could easily lead to a Bears loss if the numbers are worse than they have been the first four games of the season. Barely above 3 yards per rushing attempt and right around 40% converting third downs this season, neither of those stats have ever lead a Dave Aranda coached Baylor team to a bowl or playoff game.
Make Your Own Predicition, Borrow Our Information
The staff at Baylor Bears on SI may be torn on who they think will win Saturday night, but whether it's the ASU players that the Bears need to keep from having a big game, or even other potential storylines for how the game will go, all are excited at the prospect of Baylor being 2-0 to start Big 12 play.
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Brad is a writer and contributes to the Baylor Bears on SI, with aspirations to share his own unique thoughts and perspectives with fans. Whether through the facts and figures of the past or the untold potential and triumphs of the future, sports have always been a large influence on Brad's storytelling and life overall. His inspiration to write began while watching sports when he first noticed the highs and lows of each game, each quarter, each play; there's a story in each of them worth telling, and he wanted to tell them.
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