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4 Bold Predictions for Remainder of Baylor Football's Season

Five games into the season and the Bears are 4-1; it's time for some speculation: positive and negative.
Oct 3, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA;  Baylor Bears mascot cheers against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the first quarter at Mountain America Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Anna Carrington-Imagn Images
Oct 3, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Baylor Bears mascot cheers against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the first quarter at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anna Carrington-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

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What better time for some speculation and predictions for the remainder of the season than the bye week of Week 6? Especially heading into the bye week not only on a four-game winning streak, but with the most recent being the most complete game that Baylor has played all season. Not everything is sunshine, lollipops, and rainbows though as I'll be providing optimism, pessimism, and realism for each prediction.

Baylor Will Eventually Have a Game That Sees a 100+ yard rusher

Baylor Bears running back Dawson Pendergrass (35) carries the ball against the Colorado Buffaloes
Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears running back Dawson Pendergrass (35) carries the ball against the Colorado Buffaloes during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Optimism: After watching Ryelan Morris score on a 63 yard run, Caden Knighten score on a 75 yard run, and even DJ Lagway scoring on an 11 yard rush, "big play" is possible with any of Baylor's potential runners. Baylor keeping a rotation of fresh legs at tailback causes unique problems for the defenses as all of the Bears' runners bring their own spin to the position.

Pessimism: The old school mentality of having one running back and just feeding them the ball all game long worked for more than 100 years. Dawson Pendergrass would excel as the sole running back as his style would just wear down and eventually break any defense Baylor might face.

Realism: Baylor just had 244 rushing yards against ASU and the offensive line provided protection for Lagway and opened up running lanes for each tailback the entire game. ASU may have been the toughest opponent that Baylor will face for the next month or so, and it shouldn't be unrealistic to expect the Bears to put up similar numbers and performances in the weeks to come.

Baylor is Going to Win, Not Just Contend, for the Big 12 Title

A detailed view of the Big 12 Conference and Baylor Bears logos on an end zone pylon before the game
Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; A detailed view of the Big 12 Conference and Baylor Bears logos on an end zone pylon before the game against the Colorado Buffaloes at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Optimism: Lofty expectations, yes, I'll admit to that. However, who's going to stop the Bears? Texas Tech had trouble putting Houston (who just had to come back from a 10 point halftime deficit to UCF) away, and BYU just had to scratch and claw their way to beat TCU and who won't have been truly tested until they play Notre Dame. Baylor has shown no signs of weakness in terms of talent this season, and the sky truly is the limit. The path to the playoff is right in front of Baylor.

Pessimism: A mobile quarterback who hasn't had a designed run play since returning from injury, and tends to resemble a statue waiting in the pocket and an offensive line that was only able to spring two long running plays against a lackluster ASU defense. Those aren't strong cards to play if the goal is to win.

Realism: Every game is going to be a challenge and the last three of Baylor's season (BYU, Houston, Texas Tech) are not going to be easy in the slightest. Depending on how the rest of the season goes, all four could be competing for playoff spots.

Dave Aranda Will Still Be Baylor's Head Coach Next Season

Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda looks on during the first half against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at McLane Stadium
Sep 19, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda looks on during the first half against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Optimism: A winning season, a bowl game, the potential of even a playoff-berth, a defense that dominating every opponent they come up against, a revolving chamber of explosive running backs, one of the best wide receivers in the country, the best punter in the country; Baylor might be in "win now" mode. The hot seat has cooled for Coach Aranda substantially from how the season started.

Pessimism: You're supposed to win against the FCS schools and the G6 schools, it's safe to say that there's something going on with Colorado this season, and ASU just didn't perform very well. Coach Aranda still lost the Auburn game on a high-risk, high-reward decision, and historically he hasn't done too well with them. Hot Seat is still hot.

Realism: His contract runs until 2029, the players seem to like playing for him, and pairing his own defensive mind with Joe Klanderman's has produced a much improved defense than what last year saw. However, a losing season could spell disaster for Coach Aranda at Baylor.

Baylor is Going to Lose to TCU and it's Going to Hurt

TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes and Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda meet at midfield following a game
Oct 18, 2025; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs head coach Sonny Dykes and Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda meet at midfield following a game at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Optimism: After how Baylor just dismantled ASU, Baylor's not going to lose another game for awhile. TCU is having a rougher go of things this year than was originally anticipated, but there is still a ton of talented players on that team. Baylor shouldn't lose this game as the result should be very similar to the ASU game.

Pessimism: Of course they are, and of course it will. Bye-bye to any chances of being ranked anytime soon if Baylor loses to TCU. With how both teams have performed this year there's no excuse for Baylor to lose to TCU, and that's precisely why they will. If not for Ryelan Morris' 63 yard touchdown run, the Bears had just gone three-and-out on their previous drive after surrendering the lead to the Sun Devils on a field goal.

Realism: The game hasn't happened yet, and it won't for another week yet. The prediction that TCU will defeat Baylor is based on nothing more than a hunch as no official odds have come out yet, and the amount of time left before the game actually occurrs.

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Brad Teague
BRAD TEAGUE

Brad is a writer and contributes to the Baylor Bears on SI, with aspirations to share his own unique thoughts and perspectives with fans. Whether through the facts and figures of the past or the untold potential and triumphs of the future, sports have always been a large influence on Brad's storytelling and life overall. His inspiration to write began while watching sports when he first noticed the highs and lows of each game, each quarter, each play; there's a story in each of them worth telling, and he wanted to tell them.

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