Baylor Confidence Meter: How I'm Feeling About Trending Positions Against UCF

Baylor's offense has continued to struggle, but the Bears could look a little different on that side of the ball against UCF.

Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears assistant coach Jake Spavital looks on during the second half against the Colorado Buffaloes at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Bears struggled to find success on the ground against Kansas, finishing with just 75 rushing yards from their running backs. Baylor will need to make some adjustments against UCF, and I expect to see a few different play calls on offense.

Here's where my confidence stands in Baylor's trending positions heading into its road matchup against UCF.

Quarterback: 6.5/10

Oct 24, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway (2) is tackled by Kansas Jayhawks cornerback Lennie Brown III (17) during the second half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

DJ Lagway has struggled in Baylor's last two games, making it difficult for the offense to find any consistency. While the offensive line hasn't helped much, his inaccurate throws and miscommunication with receivers have raised concerns.

Baylor's lack of success in the run game has also made things more difficult for Lagway and the passing attack. Jake Spavital will need to come up with a different game plan if the Bears want to move the ball effectively and sustain drives against UCF.

Lagway's ability to run against Kansas was something we hadn't seen much from him this season after his Week 1 injury against Auburn. However, it was a bright spot last week and opens up more of the playbook for Spavital.

I still believe in Lagway, but he'll have to find a way to connect with his receivers early in the game, or it could be another long day for the Baylor offense.

Wide Receivers: 7/10

Oct 3, 2026; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Baylor Bears wide receiver Louis Brown IV (4) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against Arizona State Sun Devils during the second quarter at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Anna Carrington-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Gavin Freeman has undoubtedly been Baylor's best receiver and has become Lagway's main target. The Bears desperately need someone else to step up and provide more production in the passing game.

Louis Brown IV has put up decent numbers and has been a solid outside threat for Baylor. We've also seen flashes from Jadon Porter, who has shown he can make big plays, but he hasn't been as consistent in terms of production.

Against UCF, I expect another big game from Freeman, but I also think Porter and Brown IV will make their presence felt with a few receptions and a big play or two of their own.

Running backs: 6/10

Sep 26, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears running back Dawson Pendergrass (35) carries the ball against the Colorado Buffaloes during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Baylor's struggles in the run game aren't entirely on the running backs, as the offensive line also deserves a good amount of blame for the lack of success on the ground. Overall, though, this unit simply hasn't been productive enough throughout the season.

After averaging just 2.6 yards per carry against TCU and 3.1 against Kansas, this unit will need to improve to take some pressure off Baylor's struggling offense.

I don't expect the Bears to have a great game on the ground against UCF, but I do think they'll pick up enough yardage when needed to keep drives alive.

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