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Key Matchups In Baylor's Friday Night Matchup Against UCF Knights

Baylor faces off against a UCF team coming off a big win last week. Can the Bears get a win the week after firing head coach Dave Aranda?
Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA;  Baylor Bears wide receiver Jadon Porter (3) reacts after a play against the TCU Horned Frogs during the second half at McLane Stadium.  Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones
Oct 17, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Baylor Bears wide receiver Jadon Porter (3) reacts after a play against the TCU Horned Frogs during the second half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Baylor has now fallen to 4-3 after a tough loss against Kansas last week. Many fans have not been happy, and for that reason, Baylor decided to fire Dave Aranda on Sunday. Aranda was in the hot seat to start the year, and after a couple of disappointing losses, it's still surprising to see a mid-season firing at Baylor University. Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman will be taking over as the interim head coach for the remainder of the season.

Baylor has a shorter week and plays tomorrow night against UCF, who just beat the number two-ranked team in the country. It should be an interesting game: will Baylor step up and compete after losing their head coach, and will UCF still have the firepower that got them to beat a highly praised BYU team? Here are a few key matchups to look at that could determine this game for either side.

Baylor’s Passing Attack vs. UCF’s Secondary

Baylor Bears quarterback DJ Lagway (2) warms up
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Baylor has been exceptionally good at getting Lagway to air the ball out, ranking 24th in the country with over 278 passing yards per game. Big thanks to transfer receiver Gavin Freeman for that too, who ranks 14th in yards and is tied for second in the country in receptions.

UCF has had trouble stopping pass-heavy offenses, giving up almost 240 a game. This should be a very pass-heavy game plan from Baylor. Get the ball to your playmakers, and let them do what they do. I expect Freeman to have at least ten catches and over 100 yards with a touchdown. BYU's Kyler Kasper was able to notch over 129 yards on just six receptions last week, and I believe Freeman will be able to do something similar Friday night.

Baylor's Struggling Run Game Against A Dominant Run Defense

Baylor Bears running back Caden Knighten
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Baylor's run game has been seriously disappointing, given all the hype it had in preseason, Dawson Pendergrass coming back from injury, and young guys like Caden Knighten and Michael Turner. The Bears are sitting at right around the 90th team in the country in rushing yards per game, and haven't had that huge running game since the Arizona State blowout.

Being able to consistently run the ball is key to keeping momentum on offense, and forcing Lagway to always be productive in passing can make for a slow offense when he's not on his game. Lagway is 16th in the country in passing yards per game, and hasn't been under 230 yards since his first game back from injury. UCF has one of the better run defenses in the country, and if Baylor wants to win games, running the ball and burning up some clock is a priority.

Baylor's Productive Pass Rush vs Keyone Jenkins Scrambling Ability

Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Isaac Wilson (16) is sacked by Baylor Bears linebacker Kyland Reed
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UCF's quarterback showed tremendous awareness and ability last week against BYU's defense by running out of the pocket and making a ton of big throws on the run. Baylor's defense has been one of the more productive units in college football this year, allowing only 12 touchdowns, and has the third most sacks in the country allowing just 16 points a game.

Jenkins is a very talented playmaker, and he will make it a struggle to get pressure and get sacks. Baylor still needs to bring relentless pressure on third downs and just hope they can get to Jenkins a few times and get a few thrid down stops to get the ball back.

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Tyler Gillum
TYLER GILLUM

Tyler is a writer for Baylor Bears On SI with a deep focus on football and basketball. Professional stat cruncher and high school athlete. Passionate NFL, college, and NBA fan. I love sports and want to put that passion into my writing.

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