Baylor Football Bowl Projections Split After Kansas Loss, Dave Aranda Firing
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Baylor's postseason outlook has become increasingly uncertain following Saturday's 25-24 loss at Kansas, which dropped the Bears to 4-3 and ultimately cost head coach Dave Aranda his job.
After starting 4-1, Baylor has lost consecutive games to TCU and Kansas, squandering opportunities to move closer to bowl eligibility against opponents that entered their respective matchups with losing records.
Now, with defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman serving as interim head coach, Baylor needs two victories over its final five games to qualify for the postseason.
National outlets are split on whether the Bears will get there. ESPN and CBS Sports still project Baylor to reach a bowl game, while Athlon Sports and The Athletic leave it out.
ESPN: First Responder Bowl or Liberty Bowl
ESPN's Kyle Bonagura projects Baylor to face Florida Atlantic in the First Responder Bowl, while Mark Schlabach predicts a matchup with Mississippi State in the Liberty Bowl.
Bonagura's projection would keep Baylor close to home, with the First Responder Bowl taking place at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas on Jan. 2.
Schlabach's prediction would send the Bears to Memphis for a matchup against an SEC opponent on the same day.
Of the two, the Liberty Bowl would offer the more intriguing matchup. A victory over Mississippi State would give Baylor an opportunity to end an otherwise disappointing season with a notable win against Power Four competition.
CBS Sports: Poinsettia Bowl vs. Oregon State
CBS Sports' Brad Crawford projects Baylor to face Oregon State in the Poinsettia Bowl on Dec. 23 in San Diego.
The Beavers have won five consecutive games after starting 0-2, improving to 5-2 overall and 3-0 in Pac-12 play. Their offense has been particularly impressive, averaging 42.7 points per game behind an explosive passing attack.
That would present an intriguing matchup against Baylor's defense, which has been the Bears' most dependable unit this season.
However, Oregon State has been less consistent defensively, allowing 23.1 points per game. That could give DJ Lagway and Baylor's offense opportunities to establish some rhythm, which they've lacked the past two weeks.
The matchup would test whether Baylor's defensive strength can contain Oregon State's offensive production while offering the Bears a chance to finish their season with a victory over one of the Pac-12's stronger teams.
Athlon Sports: Baylor Left Out
Athlon Sports' Steven Lassan leaves Baylor out of his latest bowl projections, listing the Bears among the teams narrowly missing the postseason field.
Baylor was also excluded following its loss to TCU, a notable change from earlier projections that placed the Bears against Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.
The Athletic: Baylor Left Out
The Athletic also excludes Baylor from its latest bowl projections.
The outlet has been particularly critical of the Bears' recent performances, dropping them from No. 39 to No. 65 in its national rankings over the past two weeks.
The 26-spot decline reflects how quickly Baylor has lost momentum following consecutive defeats against struggling conference opponents.
Although the Bears need just two victories to qualify for a bowl game, their remaining schedule presents significant challenges, beginning Friday at UCF.
The Knights are coming off a 39-31 double-overtime upset of previously unbeaten BYU, making the trip to Orlando considerably more difficult than it appeared earlier in the season.
Can Baylor Still Reach a Bowl Game?
Friday's matchup will provide the first indication of how Baylor responds to Klanderman's promotion.
The coaching change could provide renewed energy, but the Bears must address the offensive inconsistency, penalties and missed opportunities that contributed to their recent losses.
At 4-3, Baylor remains within reach of six victories. However, another loss would increase the pressure heading into a difficult November schedule.
After finishing 5-7 in 2025, missing a bowl game for the second consecutive season would represent another setback for the program.
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Blake Hollingsworth is a Baylor University graduate who began covering sports with the Baylor Roundup yearbook, where he wrote about Baylor athletics. He later worked as a reporter for the Waco Tribune-Herald, covering breaking news and enterprise stories. A lifelong sports fan, Blake enjoys telling in-depth stories that give fans greater insight into the teams and athletes they follow.