Baylor Needs More Top-End NFL Talent to Reverse Program's Trajectory

Baylor has finished with a winning record in just four of the past 10 seasons. The program's inability to generate premier NFL talent helps explain those struggles.

Jan 7, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; DJ Lagway, a Florida quarterback currently in the transfer portal, sits with Baylor Bears football head coach Dave Aranda, left, during the first half of a game between the Baylor Bears and Iowa State Cyclones at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

When the Baylor Bears take the field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium this Saturday, they will do so as heavy underdogs against the Auburn Tigers. That perception arises from a variety of factors, from Dave Aranda's presumed hot seat dampening expectations in Waco to the hype surrounding Auburn's new coach-quarterback combination of Alex Golesh and Byrum Brown.

By all appearances, Auburn's signal-caller doesn't seem overly concerned about his Week 1 opponent.

"They play hard. They fly around to the ball. They're sound. We're going to have to be smart with the ball, find the open guys, and let our playmakers make plays," Brown said about facing Baylor's defense. "That's the name of the game. Just be us, be our offense, and we should be just fine."

Brown's confidence derives from more than mere X's and O's, however. Saturday's matchup underscores a throughline for Baylor over the past decade. Compared to the competition, the Bears have not acquired and developed enough future top-end NFL prospects to consistently hold serve against high-level opponents, especially those in the Big 12.

Baylor's decade of first-round talent deficit

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Talent alone doesn't win football games at the FBS level, but the absence of it can effectively doom a program. For a stretch in the late 2000s and early 2010s, Baylor had its share of future top draft picks, generating six first-rounders between 2009 and 2016. That group included multiple top-2 selections: offensive lineman Jason Smith and quarterback Robert Griffin III.

That well dried up in the ensuing years. Since Baylor wide receiver Corey Coleman went No. 15 overall in 2016, 10 NFL drafts have come and gone without the program producing a first-round pick. For comparison, only two of the other 15 current Big 12 teams have a longer such drought. One of those schools, Kansas, ranks fifth in all-time losses.

Baylor's talent issues look even more acute upon closer inspection. Thirteen of the Big 12's 16 teams can claim at least one first-round pick since the start of the current decade. Of those, seven had done so over the past two drafts alone. The Bears did end a multiyear draft skid earlier this year, but both of the players selected from the program came off the board in the sixth round, more than 150 spots after the final first-rounder.

Big 12 running away from Baylor

A wider view of talent production doesn't do many favors for the Bears either. Over the past 10 drafts, they account for just five players taken in the opening three rounds, collectively referred to as Day 1 and 2 picks. Those prospects haven't fared particularly well in the NFL either. Four of them -- Siaki Ika, Denzel Mims, Tyquan Thornton, and JT Woods -- didn't reach the end of their rookie contracts. Only Jalen Pitre has carved out a niche at the next level, developing into a starting defensive back for the Houston Texans.

At least by the numbers, the majority of the Big 12 stands in stark contrast. Ten programs within the conference have generated more Day 1 and 2 picks over the same stretch of time, and several teams have vastly exceeded Baylor's total. The Utah Utes have nearly lapped the Bears twice, accounting for 14 prospects selected in the opening three rounds.

In the past, programs required several years to build up a roster and develop it, but that approach seems antiquated in the current era. Baylor doesn't need to look beyond the Big 12 for an example, as the Texas Tech Red Raiders have demonstrated how funding and organizational alignment can quickly improve the quality of a roster. In 2026 alone, they produced five top-100 picks, as many as the Bears generated in total over the past decade.

Chance to stem the tide?

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

For Baylor to break out of its talent-development slump this season, one of the program's top players will have to take a meaningful step in 2026. DJ Lagway, the crown jewel of the Bears' roster makeover, has the talent to make such a leap plausible.

Back in 2024, Lagway joined the Florida Gators as the No. 1-rated dual-threat quarterback in his recruiting class. After a promising debut campaign, he entered the 2025 season ranked among the Heisman Trophy favorites and, according to Pro Football Focus, a top-10 signal-caller in the nation.

Health issues and a crumbling Florida regime contributed to Lagway's underperformance last year. However, the talent that had some talent evaluators projecting him as the No. 1 overall pick in 2027 remains intact.

If Lagway can replicate his best moments from Florida while avoiding the high-leverage mistakes that cost the Gators games, the NFL will take notice. That will also mean that Baylor has a bona fide field-tilter playing under center, and their outlook should improve accordingly.

Sign up for our free newsletter and follow us on X and Facebook for the latest news.