Player Prop Countdown: Top 10 NFL Player Props for Week 10 (Bet Chuba Hubbard to Run Over Saints Defense)

After a few profitable weeks of the Player Prop Countdown, we took a small step back in Week 9, going just 3-7 with my favorite props. The good news is that the second half of the NFL season begins this week, so it's as good a time as any to get back to our winning ways.

Let's dive into my top 10 player props for the Week 11 slate.

Best NFL Week 10 Prop Bets

10) C.J. Stroud OVER 245.5 Pass Yards -115 (BetMGM)

C.J. Stroud has quietly become one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL the past few weeks. In fact, since Week 4, he's second in the league in adjusted EPA per play and sixth in completion percentage over expected. He's playing as well as he has all season and he has thrown for 260+ yards in all but two games this season. We now only need him to reach 246 passing yards for him to cash this bet for us.

9) Fernando Mendoza Longest Completion UNDER 29.5 Yards -114 (FanDuel)

Fernando Mendoza is set to make his first NFL start on Sunday and he couldn't have asked for a tougher opponent to face. Not only is the Seahawks' defense efficient, but they have limited explosive plays this season. They have given up the fewest passing plays of 20+ yards (14) and has given up just one single passing play of 40+ yards.

I also expect the Raiders to keep Mendoza to throwing short routes to get him comfortable in his first start.

8) Javonte Williams UNDER 63.5 Rush Yards -109 (DraftKings)

When talking about elite run defenses people bring up teams like the Vikings and Seahawks, but it's the 49ers that have quietly had one of the best run defenses in football. San Francisco ranks first in opponent rush EPA while allowing the fewest yards per carry, giving up 3.3 yards per rush. With that being the case, the Cowboys would be smart to try to throw the ball against the Cowboys instead of running it with Javonte Williams. For those reasons, I'll bet the UNDER on his rushing yards total.

7) Michael Penix Jr. OVER 0.5 Interceptions -102 (FanDuel)

As a Falcons fan I'm starting to lose faith in Michael Penix Jr. His accuracy hasn't seemingly improved from last season, and he enters into Week 10 action with the fifth-highest bad throw rate with 17.1% of his passes being considered "bad". He has now thrown a combined five interceptions the past two games. I'll bet on him to throw another against a Chiefs defense that is averaging 0.8 interceptions per game.

6) Drake Maye Longest Completion OVER 36.5 Yards -114 (FanDuel)

The Lions' defense has struggled all season and they continue to deal with a plethora of injuries. They have given up the most passing plays of 20+ yards this season with 34, and they've also given up six passing plays of 40+ yards. I fully expect Drake Maye to have a strong performance, which will include a completion of 37+ yards. He has completed a pass of 37+ yards in all but two of his starts this season.

5) Jayden Daniels OVER 37.5 Rush Yards -113 (FanDuel)

Jayden Daniels hasn't been afraid to take off running this season and throughout recent NFL history it has been shown that quarterbacks are more likely to take off running in prime time games. The Commanders will face the Giants on Thursday Night Football and it's worth noting that New York has given up the third most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season at 236.

4) Tyler Warren Anytime Touchdown +215 (DraftKings)

With Keenan Allen and Josh Downs traded at the deadline, Daniel Jones and the Indianapolis Colts only have one reliable pass-catcher left in their offense, and it’s their tight end, Tyler Warren. He’s already sixth amongst NFL tight ends in both targets (53) and receptions (38), and I think his workload will increase even more as he becomes the focal point of the Colts’ passing attack. He has a great matchup ahead of him on Sunday when he faces a Dolphins team that has allowed 52 receptions, 515 yards, and six touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season. He’s a great bet to score his third touchdown of the season at +215.

3) Tyler Allgeier OVER 2.5 Receptions +108 (DraftKings)

Carson Beck will be making his first NFL start on Sunday and with Michael Wilson now out for the season, I expect him to stick to throwing short routes and screens to the likes of Trey McBride and Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier has already hauled in 23 receptions this season, so with him being the only healthy running back left, I expect that number to continue to tick up in Beck's first start.

2) Hunter Henry OVER 35.5 Receiving Yards -111 (DraftKings)

The Detroit Lions' struggles when it comes to defending tight ends continue. They have given up the second-most receptions to opposing tight ends at 64, as well as the most receiving yards to tight ends at 704, which is 25 more yards than any other team has given up to tight ends. I'm going to bank on that continuing when they face Hunter Henry and the Patriots in Germany on Sunday morning.

1) Chuba Hubbard OVER 74.5 Rush Yards -134 (BetMGM)

The Saints' run defense has been atrocious this season, ranking 28th in opponent rush EPA and dead last in opponent rush success rate. With that being the case, I'm going to back my fellow Canadian to have a big performance. Hubbard has had a strong 2026 season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and 77.4 rushing yards per game. If he hits his season average on Sunday, we'll cash this bet.

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