If Baylor Football Has Another Losing Season in 2026, Here's What Went Wrong
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Baylor football does not have to be perfect in 2026 to get back to a bowl game.
That is the important part. The Bears are not entering the season needing a national-title profile, a top-five defense or a flawless transition from DJ Lagway. They need to become sturdier, less chaotic and more capable of winning the normal middle-class Big 12 games that decide whether a season becomes respectable or frustrating.
If Baylor has another losing season in 2026, the explanation probably starts with three connected issues: the defense never became reliable enough, Lagway did not give the Bears the quarterback steadiness they needed, and the offense lost too much of the infrastructure that made last year’s passing game work.
The defense stayed too leaky
This is the easiest place to start because Baylor’s 2025 season was not hard to diagnose.
The Bears averaged 31.1 points per game, fifth-best in the Big 12, and still finished 5-7. That is not a small gap between offensive production and team success. That is a warning sign. Baylor’s defense allowed 32.6 points per game, 392.1 total yards per game and 197.2 rushing yards per game. Opponents also scored 50 total touchdowns, including 30 on the ground.
For a team that had enough offense to stay in most games, the defense too often made staying in games feel exhausting. Baylor could move the ball, but it could not consistently change the temperature of a game with a stop, a short field or a series that let the offense breathe.
That matters even more in the Big 12, where the difference between 7-5 and 5-7 can come down to three or four late-game possessions. Baylor lost 42-36 to TCU, 27-24 to Arizona State and 31-24 to Houston in 2025. The Bears also gave up 55 points to Utah and 41 to Arizona down the stretch.
That kind of defensive profile leaves very little room for quarterback transition, special teams variance or one bad offensive quarter. If 2026 goes sideways, it probably means Baylor never found enough defensive resistance to let the rest of the roster settle.
The Bears did not need the defense to become dominant. They needed it to stop being the reason every game felt like a math problem.
DJ Lagway was more talented than steady
Lagway is the biggest swing piece in the whole conversation.
The former Florida quarterback gives Baylor real upside. He has the size, arm talent, make, and pedigree that makes a program believe a quick offensive reset is possible. He was a former five-star recruit, started 19 games at Florida and arrived in Waco with two years of eligibility remaining.
But Baylor did not just need a talented quarterback. It needed a stabilizer.
That is where the question gets more complicated. Lagway’s 2025 season at Florida had plenty of flashes, but it also came with volatility. He completed 63.2% of his passes for 2,264 yards and 16 touchdowns, but he also threw 14 interceptions, the most among SEC quarterbacks. Across two seasons at Florida, he threw for 4,179 yards, 28 touchdowns and 23 interceptions.
For Baylor, that turnover history matters because Sawyer Robertson left behind a real standard. Robertson threw for 3,681 yards, 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 2025. Baylor led the Big 12 in passing offense at 309.6 yards per game and ranked third in total offense at 451.1 yards per game.
So the Lagway conversation is not just about whether he can make NFL-looking throws. He can. The question is whether he can make the simple ones, avoid the back-breaking mistake and keep Baylor on schedule when the game is not clean.
That is the difference between a quarterback who raises the ceiling and one who raises the floor.
If Baylor has another losing season, an underwhelming Lagway year will probably sit near the center of it. Not because he lacked ability, but because Baylor needed his ability to come with efficiency, ball security and week-to-week calm.
The offensive support system got thinner
The third issue is not just about Lagway. It is about what Baylor asked him to replace.
The Bears did not only lose Robertson. They also had to replace a lot of the pass-catching structure that made the 2025 offense dangerous. Josh Cameron had 69 catches for 872 yards and nine touchdowns. Michael Trigg had 50 catches for 694 yards and six touchdowns. Ashtyn Hawkins had 53 catches for 621 yards. Kole Wilson added 44 catches for 591 yards and five touchdowns.
That is a lot of production, but more importantly, it is a lot of definition.
Cameron gave Baylor a trusted volume target. Trigg gave the Bears a tight end who could create issues down the field and in the middle of the field. Hawkins gave them another steady receiving piece. Wilson added speed and all-purpose value.
For a new quarterback, those details matter. It is one thing to enter a new offense with a veteran receiving corps that already knows how to separate, adjust and finish drives. It is another to learn a new system while the offense is also trying to rebuild its most dependable passing-game answers.
That is why the run game also becomes part of this same conversation. Baylor averaged just 141.5 rushing yards per game and scored only 12 rushing touchdowns in 2025. That was near the bottom of the Big 12.
A stronger rushing attack could have protected Lagway. It could have shortened games, helped the defense and kept Baylor out of predictable passing downs. Instead, if that part of the offense remains ordinary, Lagway has to carry too much of the burden too quickly.
Overall, Baylor’s path back to respectability is not mysterious.
The Bears need the defense to stop bleeding points, Lagway to become steadier than his Florida interception numbers suggest, and the offense to find new answers around him fast enough to avoid wasting another season.
If another losing season comes, it probably means one of those areas failed.
If it gets ugly, it probably means all three did.
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Josh began covering Baylor athletics in July 2025. Before this, he previously wrote for Syracuse men's basketball and football at SI from 2022-24. As a former Division I defensive lineman at Prairie View, Josh is passionate about storytelling from a former athlete's perspective. When he's not covering Baylor, he enjoys traveling, listening to podcasts and music, and loves cooking a good meal.
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