Odds Baylor football gets sixth win and gains postseason eligibility

After falling to Utah, what are the odds Baylor makes a bowl game?
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Following a brutal loss at the hands of Utah, Baylor's postseason is in jeopardy. This comes after there were super high expectations placed on the program. Some even thought the Bears could be a darkhorse contender to make the College Football Playoff.

Now, there is uncertainty surrounding the program. Clearly, no CFP berth, and potentially no bowl game for a veteran roster.

RELATED: PFF grades, snap counts following Baylor's devastating loss to Utah

Following Baylor's loss to Utah, the Bears dropped four spots on ESPN's Football Power Index and is now the No. 52 team in the nation, trailing both Duke and East Carolina.

What is the FPI and how does it calculate its rankings?

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.

Baylor's remaining odds

According to the advanced analytics, Baylor is projected to go 5.9-6.1 this season. Baylor has a 19% chance to win out, the analytics say.

Baylor's final two games come against Arizona on the road, before returning to Waco to take on Houston in the season finale. So what are Baylor's chances against each program with a chance to go bowling?

Chances it goes bowling

The advanced analytics don't believe Baylor will get its sixth win against Arizona. The Bears have a 31.8% chance to go on the road and come away with a win. Baylor is currently a 6.5-point underdog against Noah Fifita and the 'Cats. Arizona has won its last three games and has won seven games this season.

If Baylor doesn't win against Arizona, the Bears' final chance will come at home to Houston. As of now, Baylor is favored to win. The Bears have a 60.5% chance to beat the Cougars and get to a bowl game. Houston is 8-2, but fell two weeks ago to a bad West Virginia team. If the Mountaineers can knock off the Cougars -- Baylor has a shot at home.

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Trent Knoop
TRENT KNOOP

Trent is the Publisher of Baylor Bears on SI and also serves as the Managing Editor for Michigan Wolverines on SI. His work has additionally been featured on Maryland on SI, Wisconsin on SI, and across the USA TODAY Sports network. Trent’s love of sports and being able to tell stories to fans is what made him get into writing.

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