Way-Too-Early Bowl Prediction Pits Baylor Football Against AAC Program

On3 releases early bowl predictions as teams get through spring games and practice. Where does Baylor land?

Oct 19, 2024; Lubbock, Texas, USA; A general view of a Baylor Bears helmet on the sidelines before the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium and Cody Campbell Field. | Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Images

With almost all schools' spring games done, analysts have made bowl predictions to determine an approximate spot where teams will most likely end up. Baylor is currently predicted to land their first bowl game since 2024, where Baylor fell short to LSU, 44-31.

December 31, 2024: NCAA football, Kinder’s Texas Bowl game action between the Baylor Bears and the LSU Tigers at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. | Clapper: Michael Bacigalupi

Underestimated, or Accurate?

After almost a complete rebuild, not many people are predicting a major bounce-back year for the Bears, but I believe this is just the right motivation for players to see. Last year, the Frisco Bowl had two pretty solid lower-conference teams, with Ohio slipping by UNLV 17-10.

On3 predicts that Baylor will play the UTSA Roadrunners. But I do expect Baylor to have a higher ceiling than this. If they can beat a few of the top-tier teams in the Big 12 this year, like Texas Tech or a win against BYU, I think they have a great shot to be a three-loss team and make a much larger bowl like the Pop-Tarts Bowl or even the Citrus Bowl.

How Baylor Matches up Against UTSA

UTSA has made major improvements this offseason, getting multiple three and four-star transfers from major Power Four programs. With additions of Texas Tech wideout TJ West and LSU Safety Joel Rogers, UTSA will definitely have plenty of talent on the field. They have their four-year starting quarterback, Owen McCown, who had over 2,900 yards with 30 touchdowns.

Aug 30, 2025; College Station, Texas, USA; UTSA Roadrunners quarterback Owen McCown (2) makes a throw in the first quarter agains the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. | Sean Thomas-Imagn Images

Baylor definitely has the defense now to prevent this team from major scoring, with additions like Hosea Wheeler, Colby McCallister, and Daniel Cobbs. I think a game between these two teams would be a close, somewhat low-scoring game. If Baylor can have a similar year on offense as last year, with the rebranded defense, I think they would handle a team like UTSA decently easily.

Two high-powered offenses with two very talented quarterbacks, Lagway and Owen McCown, would steal the show in this matchup. Although I do think Baylor's defense has improved, there's a good chance this is a 38-31 type of game. UTSA has a heavy run package that could trouble Baylor's defensive line.

Texas vs Texas Matchup

Let's be real, who wouldn't want to see two Texas schools play in Texas? Fans would be packed, getting to see two high-powered offenses go at it. UTSA is an underdog fighting a Power Four program. It would definitely be one of those non-playoff-implicated bowl games that analysts would tell you that you might wanna tune in and watch this one.

Whatever happens to both teams this year, fans and analyst excite every week we get closer to college football, especially the expectations for a bounce-back year for the Bears. Can Lagway and this new defense pass the seven projected win season? I think we will get a good idea of what Baylor can do with their opening game against Auburn on September 5th.