What Spread Says About Baylor's Chances Against Arizona State in Week 5 — Why It's Wrong
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After a successful three game home stint that saw the Bears win each of them by double digits, Baylor takes a trip to Tempe, Arizona this Saturday night for a game against the Sun Devils. ASU, being the second Big 12 opponent for a Baylor offense still trying to find itself, will be the toughest test of the season since the Auburn game in week one.
A game that's essentially a toss-up in terms of who to bet on to win, Baylor doesn't expect to lose this game, but they'll be away from home for the first time in almost a month and playing a night game in the desert. This could be an interesting game, let's look at the numbers, via FanDuel.
Spread: Baylor +3.5, ASU -3.5
As I've previously stated, this game is essentially a toss-up if it were to be played on neutral ground. The sportsbooks tend to give a 3 point nod to the home team, a practice that's been in place for a long time now, and one that I would imagine will continue for a long time to come.
A close, one score game would certainly add to the drama and excitement, although I don't think this game will end up being so close. One score separating the teams when the game clock strikes triple-zeroes isn't highly unreasonable, but I give the nod to Baylor beating the spread against ASU.
Over/Under: 48.5
Unless Baylor's offense finally figures it out and stops sputtering in the second half, I'm taking the "Under" for this game. ASU is capable of scoring plenty of points, but they haven't gone against the Bears' defense yet, and Baylor hasn't let much happen offensively for their opponents all year. Combine that with any uncertainties surrounding DJ Lagway's health/running ability, and this game has all the makings of a lower scoring game.
Stat You Should Know
ASU is coming off of a bye-week after their recent trip to play in London against the Jayhawks, because nothing says "Big 12 Football" quite like jolly old England. The Sun Devils are averaging 38 points a game (mostly thanks to a 70-7 blowout of Morgan State in their opening game).
ASU did just struggle to beat Kansas, and they're only projected to win 5-6 games this season. Baylor's defense this season though has not given up easy yards or bad touchdowns, and I don't expect that to change this week just because the background scenery does.
Both Teams are 0-1 to the SEC, 1-0 against the Big 12
Baylor lost to Auburn by about a half a foot in the Aflac Kickoff Game during week one on "neutral" ground with the final score 17-16. ASU lost to TAMU 48-20 in a game that was much less close throughout its entirety.
The Bears started Big 12 play this past week in Waco when Colorado came to town and subsequently left with a loss. The Sun Devils also won their first Big 12 game of the year 24-17 when they played the Kansas Jayhawks in London, UK.
My Expectations?
It's going to be the third different field that DJ Lagway will be getting a start on this season, but I expect that after another week removed from the original injury he'll be able (and more willing) to be more of a force for the Baylor offense. Nothing astronomical, but be on the watch for Lagway to be designated to run this week. Another runner for ASU to try and account for in Lagway should then help to soften up their secondary if the Sun Devils start committing more players to the line of scrimmage.
Do keep in mind that while the overall odds that I've posted here are as accurate as they can be for the time of publication, my expectations and predictions for this game are my own. There are a ton of variables that go into every prediction and more that go into how the game actually plays out, and I'll freely admit that I could very well be wrong. Whether Baylor covers the spread or doesn't, or lights up the scoreboards or doesn't, or even wins the game or doesn't, I'm just excited to watch a good game of Big 12 football.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER
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Brad is a writer and contributes to the Baylor Bears on SI, with aspirations to share his own unique thoughts and perspectives with fans. Whether through the facts and figures of the past or the untold potential and triumphs of the future, sports have always been a large influence on Brad's storytelling and life overall. His inspiration to write began while watching sports when he first noticed the highs and lows of each game, each quarter, each play; there's a story in each of them worth telling, and he wanted to tell them.
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