Best & Worst Case Scenarios for BYU on Selection Sunday

What's the best-case scenario for BYU on Selection Sunday?

Mar 11, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) brings the ball up court ahead of West Virginia Mountaineers forward Brenen Lorient (0) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

The NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. In a few hours, the classic March Madness tune will be playing in homes across the country and the bracket will be revealed. Kevin Young and the BYU basketball program will hear their name called for the second time in Young's second season as BYU's head coach.

Just over a week ago, opinions varied on BYU's projected NCAA Tournament seed. While the Cougars were a lock to make the tournament despite their struggles, bracketologists had BYU projected as high as a 6-seed and as low as a 9-seed.

Over the last 10 days, BYU's projected NCAA Tournament seed has slowly come into focus. In this article, we'll go over the best-case NCAA Tournament scenario and the worst-case scenario for BYU.

The Best-Case Scenario

The best-case scenario for BYU is pretty straightforward: a 6-seed. The Cougars had hopes of being a top-four seed earlier in the season. Then, the regular season didn't go as well as expected and a season-ending injury to Richie Saunders sent the Cougars into a temporary downward spiral.

Fortunately for BYU fans, the Cougars have seemingly found a new identity in the post-Richie Saunders portion of the season.

Not only is a 6-seed the best-case scenario, it's also the most likely scenario. In the 134 bracket projections on Bracket Matrix, BYU was projected as a 6-seed in 94% of brackets.

For context, going into the Texas Tech game, only 26% of bracketologists on Bracket Matrix projected BYU as a 6-seed before that game. The remaining 74% projected BYU as a 7-seed or worse. After a win over the Red Raiders, bracketologists upgraded their outlook on BYU. 54% of bracketologists projected the Cougars as a 6-seed.

Then, BYU got two blowout wins over Kansas State and West Virginia. Meanwhile, Saint Mary's lost their first game of the WCC Tournament and Kentucky came up short against Florida. Miami also lost in the ACC Tournament. Those were three teams that were competing against BYU for one of the final 6-seeds.

BYU has really helped its resume over the last week.

The Worst-Case Scenario

Similar to the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario is also straight forward: a 7-seed. If BYU is seeded lower than expected by most bracketologists, they won't slide far. The Cougars floor going into Selection Sunday appears to be a 7-seed.

Realistically, the worst-case scenario might be more about matchup pairings than seeding. BYU could be paired up against a team like Texas that ranks 37th in KenPom. The Longhorns are projected to be an 11-seed. Or they could be matchup up against a team like Miami (OH) that ranks 93rd in KenPom. The quality of the 11-seeds varies more than other seed-lines.