Opinions Vary on BYU's Projected NCAA Tournament Seeding

The Cougars are a lock to make the NCAA Tournament, but their projected seed is in question
Mar 3, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA;  BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) drives to the basket against Cincinnati Bearcats forward Jalen Celestine (32) in the second half at Fifth Third Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images
Mar 3, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) drives to the basket against Cincinnati Bearcats forward Jalen Celestine (32) in the second half at Fifth Third Arena. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

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The college basketball regular season is coming to an end this weekend. Kevin Young and the BYU basketball program will close out the regular season with one final chance to get a signature win against Texas Tech. As of Saturday morning, the Red Raiders are projected to be a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Despite the Cougars' performance over the last month, they are still a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. Thanks to their 16-1 start, it has been a question of where they would be seeded instead of whether they would make the tournament or not.

Going into the regular season finale, opinions vary on BYU's projected seed. Bracket Matrix compiles the top 100 bracket projections on the internet. The top bracketologists project BYU as high as a 6-seed and as low as a 9-seed, although only one bracketologist has BYU as a 9-seed. Below is where the top 100 bracketologists to be seeded on Selection Sunday.

  • 6-seed: 26%
  • 7-seed: 66%
  • 8-seed: 7%
  • 9-seed: 1%

Most bracketologists projected BYU as a 7-seed after the Cougars dropped back-to-back-to-back games against UCF, WVU, and Cincinnati. Prior to that stretch, BYU was firmly on pace to get a 6-seed or better.

8% of bracketologists believe BYU will get an 8-seed or worse in the NCAA Tournament.

26% of bracketologists still believe BYU is a 6-seed. With one more chance for a signature win, BYU could really improve its chances for a 6-seed by taking down Texas Tech. A win over Texas Tech combined with a win in the first round of the Big 12 tournament could be enough to secure a 6-seed. If the Cougars are going to turn this season around and make another run in the NCAA Tournament, it feels like a 6-seed is the only way to make that happen.

The difference between the 2-seeds and the 3-seeds in the tournament this year is pretty stark. The projected 2-seeds are Florida, Houston, Michigan State, and Illinois. The projected 3-seeds are Purdue, Iowa State, Nebraska, and Texas Tech. The path to the second weekend is much more favorable as a 6-seed.

However, seeding won't matter if BYU doesn't fix some of the issues it has had on the defensive end over the last month. That level of defense will almost certainly lead to a first round exit in the tournament.

Most importantly, BYU needs to get some momentum back on its side. Kevin Young admitted that BYU has lacked confidence during this losing streak. A win over a projected 3-seed in Texas Tech could go a long way in restoring BYU's confidence.

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Casey Lundquist
CASEY LUNDQUIST

Casey Lundquist is the publisher and lead editor of Cougs Daily. He has covered BYU athletics for the last four years. During that time, he has published over 2,000 stories that have reached more than three million people.

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