BYU Narrowed Down to Two Potential Big 12 Tournament Seeds

The Cougars could be one of two different seeds in the Big 12 tournament

Feb 28, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers forward Brenen Lorient (0) blocks a shot late from BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) during the second half at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

The Big 12 regular season will come to an end on Saturday. The Cougars will close the regular season at home against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Despite losing star JT Toppin for the season a few weeks ago, the Red Raiders had maintained a high level of play until earlier this week when they lost to TCU at home.

With one game to go, BYU's Big 12 tournament seeding has been narrowed down to two options: the 9-seed or the 10-seed. Given the midweek results, a first-round bye is no longer in the cards for BYU.

In fact, BYU does not control its own tournament seeding destiny at this point. The result of the WVU-UCF game could lock BYU out of the 9-seed regardless of the BYU-Texas Tech result.

The Game That Could Determine BYU's Seed

WVU-UCF could lock BYU into the 10-seed if the Mountaineers beat the Knights. Regardless of the BYU-Texas Tech results, BYU would be the 10-seed playing on Tuesday night against the 15-seed. Per KenPom, WVU has a 61% chance to beat UCF.

If UCF beats WVU, BYU would control whether they are the 9-seed or 10-seed. At that point, a win over Texas Tech would secure the 9-seed.

According to KenPom win probabilities, here are the chances that BYU will secure either the 9-seed or the 10-seed.

9-seed: 21%
10-seed: 79%

Potential First-Round Opponents

BYU will be playing on Tuesday regardless of seeding. The 15-seed has already been secured by Kansas State and the 16-seed is going to be Utah. In other words, BYU will either play Kansas State or Utah in the first round.

If BYU secures the 9-seed, they will take on rival Utah. If BYU is the 10-seed, they will take on Kansas State.