What the Advanced Analytics Say About BYU's Chances at Cincinnati

The Cougars are looking to bounce back from a dreadful week

Feb 28, 2026; Morgantown, West Virginia, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) shoots a three pointer over West Virginia Mountaineers guard Chance Moore (13) during the second half at Hope Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Ben Queen-Imagn Images | Ben Queen-Imagn Images

On Tuesday night, BYU will be looking to bounce back from a bad a pair of bad losses suffered last week. The Cougars will hit the road to take on the red-hot Cincinnati Bearcats. Cincinnat has played like one of the best teams in the league the last two or three weeks.

In this article, we'll look at what the advanced analytics say about BYU's chances to take down the Bearcats.

KenPom Predicts BYU at Cincinnati

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs Cincinnati. KenPom gives BYU a 52% chance to win with a projected final score of 76-75.

Per KenPom, the Cincinnati game is the most difficult game remaining on BYU's schedule since it's on the road.

BYU is currently ranked no. 23 in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 10th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 51st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Cincinnati ranks 44th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 129th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 13th.

Where Cincinnati has excelled during its winning streak has been from the three point line. When the Bearcats are hitting threes, they are very difficult to beat. Defending the three-point line is something the Cougars have struggled to do over the last month.

Before losing five out of six games, BYU's defense ranked inside the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars' dropped to as low as 54th, signaling the issues that they have had on that end of the floor over the last few months

ESPN BPI Predicts BYU at Cincinnati

ESPN BPI gives BYU a 56% chance to beat the Bearcats.

KenPom Predicts the Remainder of BYU's Schedule

Below are the game-by-game KenPom predictions for the remainder of BYU's schedule.

• @ Cincinnati: 52% (BYU win probability)
• vs Texas Tech: 54%

Projected Win Totals

BYU has won 20 games. With two games remaining, BYU could win as many as 22 regular season games if they win out. Below are the chances that BYU get to 21 or 22 wins.

• 21 wins: 77.9%
• 22 wins: 28.1%

BYU's odds for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament evaporated over the last three weeks. Now, BYU is just looking to cling on to a 6-seed. If BYU finishes the season on a four-game losing streak, a 6-seed is very unlikely. There is a 22.1% chance that BYU loses to both Cincinnati and Texas Tech.