BYU Slotted in Familiar Seed in Media Mock NCAA Tournament Bracket

Earlier this week, members of the national media participated in a mock selection committee exercise at the NCAA headquarters in Indianapolis. It's an annual exercise that has taken place every year, and media members use the same metrics and resumes that will be used by the actual selection committee on Selection Sunday.

In the mock bracket, BYU was a no. 6 seed taking on no. 11 seed Akron. The last three times BYU has played in the NCAA Tournament, they have been a 6-seed.

With a win, the Cougars would advance to take on the winner of Gonzaga-California Baptist.

Most importantly, BYU will need to finish strong and show the committee that they can win without star Richie Saunders. A strong finish would secure a 6-seed, or better, for the Cougars.

KenPom Predicts BYU vs Iowa State

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs Iowa State. KenPom gives BYU a 45% chance to win with a projected final score of 79-78.

Per KenPom, the game against Iowa State is the most difficult game remaining on the schedule. BYU will be favored in the final four games of the regular season.

BYU has fallen all the way to 22nd in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 9th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 47th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Iowa State ranks 7th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 15th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 8th. On paper, the Cyclones' only weakness is their free throw shooting. They rank 345th nationally in free throw percentage.

Before losing four-straight games, BYU's defense ranked inside the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars' dropped to as low as 54th, signaling the issues that they have had on that end of the floor over the last few weeks.

KenPom Predicts the Remainder of BYU's Schedule

Below are the game-by-game KenPom predictions for the remainder of BYU's schedule.

vs Iowa State: 45% (BYU win probability)
vs UCF: 83%
@ West Virginia: 61%
@ Cincinnati: 61%
vs Texas Tech: 60%

The Cougars have a challenging slate ahead of them. KenPom predicts BYU will go 3.1-1.9 in its final 5 games. That would put BYU's projected record for the full season at 22.1-8.9.

Projected Win Totals

BYU has already won 19 games. With five games remaining, BYU could win as many as 24 regular season games if they win out. Below are the chances that BYU get to 22, 23, or even 24 wins.

20 wins: 99.4%
21 wins: 93.6%
22 wins: 72.2%
23 wins: 36.5%
24 wins: 8.3%

BYU's odds for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament have taken a nose dive over the last two weeks. A string of wins could get BYU back into the territory of a top-five seed. As of this writing, BYU is a projected 6-seed per Joe Lunardi.