KenPom Predicts Critical Game Between No. 23 BYU and No. 6 Iowa State

On Saturday, BYU will look to finally win a marquee conference game. The Cougars host the no. 6 Iowa State Cyclones who are coming off a win over Houston. BYU is in desperate need of a signature win, especially one without Richie Saunders in the lineup.

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs Iowa State. KenPom gives BYU a 45% chance to win with a projected final score of 79-78.

Per KenPom, the game against Iowa State is the most difficult game remaining on the schedule. BYU will be favored in the final four games of the regular season.

BYU has fallen all the way to 22nd in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 9th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 47th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Iowa State ranks 7th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 15th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 8th. On paper, the Cyclones' only weakness is their free throw shooting. They rank 345th nationally in free throw percentage.

Before losing four-straight games, BYU's defense ranked inside the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars' dropped to as low as 54th, signaling the issues that they have had on that end of the floor over the last few weeks.

KenPom Predicts the Remainder of BYU's Schedule

Below are the game-by-game KenPom predictions for the remainder of BYU's schedule.

vs Iowa State: 45% (BYU win probability)
vs UCF: 83%
@ West Virginia: 61%
@ Cincinnati: 61%
vs Texas Tech: 60%

The Cougars have a challenging slate ahead of them. KenPom predicts BYU will go 3.1-1.9 in its final 5 games. That would put BYU's projected record for the full season at 22.1-8.9.

Projected Win Totals

BYU has already won 19 games. With five games remaining, BYU could win as many as 24 regular season games if they win out. Below are the chances that BYU get to 22, 23, or even 24 wins.

20 wins: 99.4%
21 wins: 93.6%
22 wins: 72.2%
23 wins: 36.5%
24 wins: 8.3%

BYU's odds for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament have taken a nose dive over the last two weeks. A string of wins could get BYU back into the territory of a top-five seed. As of this writing, BYU is a projected 6-seed per Joe Lunardi.

If BYU is going to improve their NCAA Tournament seeding, they will have to find more production from role players and re-work their rotation on the fly.