KenPom Predicts Big 12 Quarterfinals Between BYU and Houston

BYU is looking to win its third game in three days in Kansas City

Mar 11, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) sets the play in front of West Virginia Mountaineers forward Brenen Lorient (0) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

On Wednesday evening, BYU continued its Big 12 tournament run with a convincing win over West Virginia. The Cougars put together one of their best defensive efforts of the season, holding the Mountaineers to just 48 points. Now, BYU will look to win its third game in three days against the 2-seed Houston Cougars.

Since joining the Big 12, Houston is the only team that BYU has not beaten in basketball. Kevin Young and the BYU basketball team are looking to change that on Thursday night.

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs Houston. KenPom gives BYU an 29% chance to win with a projected final score of 78-72.

BYU is currently ranked no. 22 in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 10th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 59th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Houston ranks 6th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 15th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 7th. On paper, BYU has been much better on the defensive end in the last three games. The Cougars face their toughest challenge in stopping a Houston offense that will be well rested.

Before losing 8 out of 11 games, BYU's defense ranked inside the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars' defensive rating has plummeted to the low 70's, signaling the issues that they have had on that end of the floor over the last few months. After beating West Virginia, BYU's defensive efficiency rating improved to 59th.

BYU showed much better defensive effort against Texas Tech. That is the level of defense that BYU will have to play if it hopes to make any noise in the NCAA Tournament. If BYU beats Houston, they will advance to the semifinals where they would take on the winner of TCU-Kansas.

BYU Pulls Away From West Virginia

On Wednesday evening, the Cougars used a dominant defensive effort to take down the West Virginia Mountaineers 68-48.

This was a game that BYU controlled through most of the game. However, the Mountaineers hung around and made the game closer than it should have been until the final 10 minutes.

BYU took a lead with 12 minutes left in the first half and never trailed after that. The Mountaineers trimmed BYU's lead to 3 with 9 minutes remaining, then the Cougars went on another run and closed out the game. BYU outscored WVU 25-8 over the last 9 minutes and turned the game into a blowout.

Turnovers doomed WVU on the offensive end. The Mountaineers had 22 turnovers, the most turnovers BYU has forced in any game this season. 48 points was also the lowest scoring output of any BYU opponent this season.