KenPom Predicts Big 12 Tournament Matchup Between BYU and Kansas State

The Cougars and the Wildcats faced each other to begin conference play

Mar 7, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) and forward Keba Keita (13) reacts during the second half against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

On Tuesday evening, BYU will begin postseason play with a first round matchup against Kansas State. The Cougars tipped off conference play at the beginning of January with an away game at Kansas State and they haven't faced each other since. BYU won the first matchup 83-73.

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs Kansas State. KenPom gives BYU an 85% chance to win with a projected final score of 90-79.

BYU is currently ranked no. 25 in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 11th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 68th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Kansas State ranks 101st in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 110th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 105th. On paper, BYU should be able to generate stops against a bad Kansas State offense. However, getting stops has been hard to come by over the last month.

Before losing 8 out of 11 games, BYU's defense ranked inside the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars' defensive rating has plummeted to the low 60's, signaling the issues that they have had on that end of the floor over the last few months.

BYU showed much better defensive effort against Texas Tech. That is the level of defense that BYU will have to play if it hopes to make any noise in March. If BYU beats Kansas State, they will advance to the second round for a rematch against WVU.

Big 12 Unveils 2026 Men's Basketball Tournament Bracket

On Saturday evening, the Big 12 released the 2026 men's basketball tournament bracket. BYU will be the 10-seed and will take on 15-seed Kansas State in the first round of the Big 12 tournament. Below is the full 2026 bracket.

Big 12 2026 men's basketball tournament bracket | BYU On SI

The first round will feature four games including the bottom eight teams in the league. Baylor-Arizona State will begin the tournament with a game on Tuesday morning. Then, 9-seed Cincinnati will take on 16-seed Utah. The early evening game will feature 10-seed BYU against 15-seed Kansas State. The final game of the first round will feature 11-seed Colorado against 14-seed Oklahoma State.

The second round will feature Iowa State (5), TCU (6), WVU, (7), and UCF (8) who will enjoy first round byes. Those four teams will take on the winners of the first round games.

The quarterfinals will feature the four top seeds: Arizona (1), Houston (2), Kansas (3), and Texas Tech (4).