Oklahoma State vs. TCU Prediction, Odds for Big 12 Championship 2nd Round

The Oklahoma State cruised past Colorado in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, but the Cowboys have a much tougher matchup ahead of them in the second round when they take on the TCU Horned Frogs.

TCU won both regular-season meetings between these two teams, winning 68-65 on January 20 and then 95-92 on February 14.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for tonight's second round showdown.

Oklahoma State vs. TCU Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

Oklahoma +6.5 (-118)
TCU -6.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Oklahoma State +200
TCU -250

Total

OVER 157.5 (-115)
UNDER 157.5 (-105)

Oklahoma State vs. TCU How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, March 11
Game Time: 9:30 pm ET
Venue: T-Mobile Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPNU
Oklahoma State Record: 19-13 (6-12 in Big 12)
TCU Record: 21-10 (11-7 in Big 12)

Oklahoma State vs. TCU Betting Trends

Oklahoma State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
The OVER is 5-0 in Oklahoma State's last five games
TCU is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games vs. Oklahoma State
TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games
The UNDER is 5-1 in TCU's last six games

Oklahoma State vs. TCU Key Player to Watch

David Punch, F - TCU Horned Frogs

Not only is David Punch leading the TCU Horned Frogs in points per game, averaging 13.6, but he's also averaging 1.9 blocks per game, making him a key player for the Horned Frogs on both sides of the court. Oklahoma State will have to find a way to slow him down if the Cowboys want any chance of pulling off the upset.

Oklahoma State vs. TCU Prediction and Pick

TCU is largely the better team in this matchup, but I don't feel comfortable laying the six points on the Horned Frogs tonight. Believe it or not, Oklahoma State is the betting shooting team between the two, ranking 148th in effective field goal percentage, while TCU ranks 201st.

When looking at a team that's favored in what's expected to be a relatively close game, you have to look at their free-throw percentage to see if they'll be able to close the game out at the line. Unfortunately for TCU, this is where the Horned Frogs struggle. TCU ranks 250th in free-throw percentage, hitting its free throws at a rate of just 70.6%.

That could lead to Oklahoma State getting a backdoor cover if they find themselves down by a few possessions late in the game.

Pick: Oklahoma State +6.5 (-118)

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