KenPom Predicts BYU at Oklahoma State, Updates Projected Win Total

The Cougars are looking to bounce back from a winless week

Jan 31, 2026; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) shoots against Kansas Jayhawks forward Bryson Tiller (15) during the second half at Allen Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

On Wednesday, BYU will take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater. The Cougars are looking to bounce back after consecutive losses to two top 15 teams.

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs Kansas. KenPom gives BYU a 69% chance to win with a projected final score of 87-82.

BYU ranks 15th in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 11th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 34th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cowboys rank 57th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 62nd and a defensive efficiency ranking of 84th.

KenPom Predicts the Remainder of BYU's Schedule

Below are the game-by-game KenPom predictions for the remainder of BYU's schedule.

• @ Oklahoma State: 69% (BYU win probability)
• vs Houston: 52%
• @ Baylor: 64%
• vs Colorado: 90%
• @ Arizona: 16%
• vs Iowa State: 46%
• vs UCF: 82%
• @ West Virginia: 66%
• @ Cincinnati: 69%
• vs Texas Tech: 68%

The Cougars have a challenging slate ahead of them. KenPom predicts BYU will go 6.2-3.8 in its final 10 games. That would put BYU's projected record for the full season at 23.2-7.8.

Projected Win Totals

BYU has already won 17 games. With 10 games remaining, BYU could win as many as 27 regular season games if they win out. Below are the chances that BYU get to 24, 25, or even 26 wins.

• 18 wins: 100%
• 19 wins: 100%
• 20 wins: 99.6%
• 21 wins: 97.2%
• 22 wins: 89.0%
• 23 wins: 70.3%
• 24 wins: 43.2%
• 25 wins: 18.1%
• 26 wins: 4.3%
• 27 wins: 0.4%

A reasonable goal for BYU would be to finish with 24 or 25 wins. That would put BYU at 24-7 or 25-6 on the season and firmly in position to get a top favorable seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Odds to Win the Big 12

According to ESPN BPI, BYU basketball has the fifth best odds to win the Big 12. Arizona is now the heavy favorite after beating BYU and Arizona State on the road.

• Arizona: 77% chance to win the Big 12
• Houston: 35%
• Iowa State: 12%
• Kansas: 4%
• BYU 0.6%
• Texas Tech: 0.3%

The Cougars' upcoming games against Oklahoma State and Houston could be a turning point in the season. A pair of wins would put BYU right on track to earn a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament. A pair of losses would put BYU back in the 5-seed, 6-seed range.