How BYU Can Still Reach the Big 12 Championship Game After Utah Loss

On Saturday, BYU lost control of its own destiny when it lost to rival Utah. The Cougars may be down but they are certainly not out of the Big 12 title race. In this article, we will break down the things that would need to happen for BYU to reach the Big 12 title game.

1. BYU needs to win out

We'll start with the obvious: BYU needs to win out. There's no plausible scenario where BYU would make the Big 12 championship game with a third conference loss. BYU created some wiggle room for itself when it beat Notre Dame. It has used ever inch of wiggle room over the last three weeks. The Cougars need to take care of business against Baylor, Kansas, and Cincinnati to close the season. Fortunately for BYU, two of its final three games are home games.

2. Texas Tech needs to lose

For BYU to make the Big 12 championship game, Texas Tech needs to lose at least one of its final three games. West Virginia nearly did BYU a huge favor by upsetting Texas Tech on Saturday night. Instead, Tech used a fourth down conversion where Tommy Castellanos threw the ball up in the air and somehow a Red Raider came down with it. Despite allowing 48 points, Texas Tech held on to win. Tech controls its own destiny at this point since it has only one conference loss.

What are the odds Tech can win three in a row and make it to Arlington? Using FPI win probabilities, Tech has a 30% chance to win out and finish the season 11-1. The Red Raiders have back-to-back road games at Oklahoma State and at Baylor. They finish the season by hosting TCU. If the Red Raiders don't clean things up on the defensive end, they probably won't survive back-to-back road games over the next two weeks.

If Texas Tech loses at least one game, it would trigger a tiebreaker scenario between BYU, Texas Tech, and potentially other teams with two losses. If BYU and Texas Tech are the only 7-2 teams, BYU would win the tiebreaker since Tech lost to Cincinnati, a common opponent with BYU.

3. It would really help if Houston loses a game

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The team to watch over the next three weeks is Houston. The Cougars have two conference losses, and if they end with two losses among BYU, Texas Tech, and potentially others, Houston comes out on top in almost every scenario. There's another scenario where Arizona could win out and join the logjam of two-loss teams, winning the tiebreaker if Houston wins out as well. There's another scenario where BYU could win a four or five-team tiebreaker. More on that in a moment.

If Houston loses one more game, BYU would be in position to win most tiebreaker scenarios against all other two-loss teams in the league.

Houston survived a close call on Saturday against Cincinnati. The Bearcats were driving to tie the game when they dropped a backwards pass and Houston recovered the fumble. Unfortunately for BYU, Houston has a relatively easy schedule to close out the season, although they have to go on the road back-to-back weeks just like Texas Tech.

Houston plays at Colorado and at West Virginia, then they host Baylor to close out the regular season. Houston has a 40% chance to win out according to FPI game probabilities.

4. A four or five-team tiebreaker

There are a handful of scenarios where BYU could end up in a tiebreaker with Texas Tech, Houston, Oklahoma State, and potentially even Arizona. In that scenario, the tiebreaker will likely be determined by the strength of everyone's conference schedule. If a few games go BYU's way, like a Kansas win over West Virginia, for example, BYU could win a four or five-team tiebreaker and face Utah in the Big 12 championship game.

The more likely scenario is if BYU wins out and both Texas Tech and Houston suffer one more loss, the Cougars would be back in Arlington for the second consecutive season.

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