KenPom Predicts BYU vs Houston, Updates Projected Win Total

The Cougars are looking to end a three-game losing streak

Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Christian Coleman (4) dribbles beside BYU Cougars guard Richie Saunders (15) during a BIG 12 men's college basketball game between the Oklahoma State Cowboys (OSU) and the BYU Cougars at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater, Okla., Wednesday, Feb. 4, 2026. | BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

On Saturday, BYU will host the Houston Cougars in Provo. The Cougars are looking to bounce back from a three-game losing streak. Up until this three-game losing streak, BYU had lost just two games all season.

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs Houston. KenPom gives BYU a 47% chance to win with a projected final score of 76-75.

BYU ranks 19th in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 11th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 42nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Houston rank 6th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 8th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 9th.

Before losing four out of five games, BYU's defense ranked inside the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars' have dropped all the way to 42nd, signaling the issues that they have had on that end of the floor over the last few weeks.

KenPom Predicts the Remainder of BYU's Schedule

Below are the game-by-game KenPom predictions for the remainder of BYU's schedule.

• vs Houston: 47% (BYU win probability)
• @ Baylor: 59%
• vs Colorado: 90%
• @ Arizona: 14%
• vs Iowa State: 43%
• vs UCF: 82%
• @ West Virginia: 62%
• @ Cincinnati: 68%
• vs Texas Tech: 66%

The Cougars have a challenging slate ahead of them. KenPom predicts BYU will go 5.3-3.7 in its final nine games. That would put BYU's projected record for the full season at 22.3-8.7.

Projected Win Totals

BYU has already won 17 games. With nine games remaining, BYU could win as many as 26 regular season games if they win out. Below are the chances that BYU get to 23, 24, or even 25 wins.

• 18 wins: 100%
• 19 wins: 99.8%
• 20 wins: 98.3%
• 21 wins: 91.3%
• 22 wins: 73.4%
• 23 wins: 45.2%
• 24 wins: 18.5%
• 25 wins: 4.2%
• 26 wins: 0.3%

BYU's odds for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament have taken a nose dive over the last two weeks. At this point, that concern is secondary for Kevin Young and the BYU basketball team. The primary concern is to get better. If BYU gets better on the defensive end, the resume will take care of itself.

Odds to Win the Big 12

According to ESPN BPI, BYU basketball has the sixth best odds to win the Big 12. Arizona is still the heavy favorite.

• Arizona: 75% chance to win the Big 12
• Houston: 38%
• Iowa State: 12%
• Kansas: 4%