KenPom Predicts Pivotal Showdown Between BYU and WVU

On Saturday afternoon, BYU will be looking to bounce back from a bad loss it suffered earlier this week against UCF. The Cougars will hit the road to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in Morgantown. Last year's game between BYU and WVU in Morgantown was the turning point of the 2025 season. The Cougars are looking for a similar momentum-changing win on Saturday.

KenPom, the industry leader in college basketball analytics, predicted BYU vs WVU. KenPom gives BYU a 61% chance to win with a projected final score of 73-70.

Per KenPom, the WVU game is the easiest game remaining on BYU's schedule. After WVU, the Cougars will hit the road for a tough game against Cincinnati before returning to host Texas Tech in the regular season finale.

BYU is currently ranked no. 21 in KenPom. The Cougars are ranked 9th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and 47th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. WVU ranks 64th in KenPom with an adjusted offensive efficiency ranking of 146th and a defensive efficiency ranking of 23rd. On paper, BYU should be able to generate stops against a bad WVU offense. However, getting stops has been hard to come by over the last month.

Before losing five out of six games, BYU's defense ranked inside the top 15 in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cougars' dropped to as low as 54th, signaling the issues that they have had on that end of the floor over the last few weeks.

KenPom Predicts the Remainder of BYU's Schedule

Below are the game-by-game KenPom predictions for the remainder of BYU's schedule.

@ West Virginia: 61% (BYU win probability)
@ Cincinnati: 55%
vs Texas Tech: 58%

The Cougars have a manageable slate ahead of them with a lot of tossup games. KenPom predicts BYU will go 1.7-1.3 in its final 3 games. That would put BYU's projected record for the full season at 21.7-9.3.

Projected Win Totals

BYU has already won 20 games. With three games remaining, BYU could win as many as 23 regular season games if they win out. Below are the chances that BYU get to 22, or even 23 wins.

21 wins: 92.6%
22 wins: 61.9%
23 wins: 19.5%

BYU's odds for a high seed in the NCAA Tournament had taken a nose dive over the last three weeks. A pivotal win over Iowa State gives BYU the chance to claw back into the territory of a top-five seed. As of this writing, BYU is a projected 6-seed per Joe Lunardi.