March Madness Projection: Which Seed Will BYU Get?

The best time of the year in college basketball is almost here.

It's been a rollercoaster of a season for BYU, but thanks to their results in non-conference play, the Cougars have been safely in the NCAA tournament field for a few weeks, even with the struggles they've had in the last month.

BYU is heading to the tournament on a high note. After three straight wins, including a win against Texas Tech, and a hard-fought battle in a close loss to Houston, it was resilient response to those struggles.

If anything, BYU looks to have finally discovered its identity with this iteration of the team just in time.

With Selection Sunday near, let's look at BYU's resume for March Madness and what seed the Cougars will likely get in the field of 68.

Tournament Resume Breakdown

The NCAA Tournament Selection committee uses the following criteria to compare teams and determine which seeds each one will get:

NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET)
Wins Against Bubble (WAB)
Kevin Pauga Index (KPI)
Strength of Record (SOR)
KenPom
Torvik Rank (T-Rank)
Basketball Power Index (BPI)

The NCAA has made it known that a team's WAB rank will hold more weight this year, so that's something to keep an eye on.

Last year, BYU earned a six seed in the tournament. This year, the Cougars also currently project as a six seed. According to Bracket Martix, BYU's average seed across 116 surveyed brackets is 6.12. Joe Lunardi, one of the top bracketologists in the sport, has the team as a six seed right now as well.

Metrics Review

Now that Cougars have played their final game before their fate is decided, here's how their resume looks in all the metrics and how it compares to last year.

NCAA Metrics	This Season	Last Season
NET	23	24
WAB	21	21
KPI	23	31
SOR	26	19
KenPom	22	26
T-Rank	34	14
BPI	20	24

BYU is ranked lower than last year in just two of the seven metrics that the committee will look at.

Quad Record Review

The committee will also look at how many games BYU has won in each NET quadrant. Here's a breakdown of BYU's record in each quadrant this season compared to last.

Quad Tiers	This Season	Last Season
Quad 1A	1-7	3-4
Quad 1	7-10	8-7
Quad 2	7-1	6-2
Quad 3	4-0	4-0
Quad 4	5-0	6-0

Quad 1 and Quad 2 games hold the most weight for the selection committee, with Quad 1A wins representing the wins that stand out most. The Cougars have won slightly less Quad 1 games (and Quad 1A games) than last year. They have a 14-11 Quad 1 & 2 record, also similar to their 14-9 Quad 1 & 2 record last year. BYU is one of 19 teams that has won at least seven Quad 1 games this season and one of 16 teams that has won at least 14 Quad & Quad 2 games.

The Bracket Awaits

It was important that BYU at least won its games against Kansas State and West Virginia in the Big 12 tournament. The Cougars did just that, likely doing enough to avoid a seven seed.

However, since BYU doesn't play on Sundays, the team is limited to what regions they can play in. Sometimes that can move BYU up or down a seed line, so that is something to monitor as the bracket gets revealed.

Prediction: 6-seed