Predicting BYU's 2026 NCAA Tournament Path

The Cougars will host the winner of the First Four game in Portland

Mar 10, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) slaps hands with BYU Cougars guard Robert Wright III (1) after a play during the second half against the Kansas State Wildcats at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | William Purnell-Imagn Images

BYU is heading to the Big Dance. While we know the Cougars will be a 6-seed in Portland, we don't know who they will face. BYU will take on the winner of the First Four game between Texas and NC State.

The First Four

NC State and Texas will square off in Dayton. The winner will fly to Portland to take on BYU on Thursday. NC State-Texas is a unique case because the two teams have already played each other in the regular season. The selection committee tries to avoid rematches in the first round of the tournament. However, the committee had to relax that principle to fit both of these teams in the tournament.

In the first matchup, Texas beat NC State in a high-scoring 102-97 game. It's difficult to beat the same team twice, so we like NC State's chances to beat the Longhorns and advance to the round of 64.

The First Round

Whether BYU plays Texas or NC State in the first round, they should have a chance to score some points. Texas ranks 112th nationally in defensive efficiency and NC State ranks 86th in defensive efficiency.

The key for BYU will be on the defensive end. Fortunately for BYU fans, the Cougars have played much better on that end of the floor since the Texas Tech game. For that reason, we like BYU to win a high-scoring game in the first round and advance to the second round.

The Second Round

BYU will likely face former WCC foe Gonzaga in the second round if they advance past the first round. The Zags are taking on Kennesaw State, a team they will be highly favored to beat. Additionally, Gonzaga will be playing in Portland and will have a lot of fans in attendance.

Most important to note is that Gonzaga will likely be without star Braden Huff. According to Gonzaga coach Brandon Few, Huff is "doubtful" for the first weekend of the tournament.

Gonzaga's Braden Huff (knee) is now jogging and shooting, but doubtful for the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, per Mark Few.

Has not played since 1/8.

Averages 17.8 PPG and 5.6 RPG.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 12, 2026

BYU matches up quite well against teams that rely on defensive stops. Take the Iowa State game, for example, where BYU leaned on AJ Dybantsa to carve up the Iowa State defense. Where BYU has struggled is against teams that are dominant on the offensive end. Gonzaga is a good, not great, offensive team. For that reason, we will pick BYU to upset the Zags and advance to the Sweet 16 for the second consecutive season.

Sweet 16

If BYU advances to the Sweet 16, there are four teams that BYU could face: 2-seed Purdue, 7-seed Miami, 10-seed Missouri, or 15-seed Queens.

Purdue comes into the tournament with some momentum after defeating Michigan in the Big Ten championship. For that reason, we expect the Boilermakers to make the Sweet 16. In that scenario, we could pick Purdue to beat BYU. Purdue ranks first nationally in offensive efficiency per KenPom. That is a difficult matchup for a BYU defense that has struggled to generate stops.