Top Five Most Likely Upsets in Your March Madness Bracket

Highlighting five double-digit seeds that could help you win your bracket this year.

Author:
Joe Wheat
Publish date:
Mar 18, 2024 5:11 PM EDT

It’s the most wonderful time of the year. College basketball novices around the country will seek to assert their intellectual dominance by being the only one in their office pool that just knew that 10-seed Drake was going deep in the tournament. We at Cougs Daily hope to aid you in that crusade by highlighting a few opportunities for Madness using our Wacketology rankings.

In short, Wacketology is a data-driven way to rank NCAA tournament resumes and can be a helpful tool in predicting which teams can make a run. For example, UCLA earned an 11-seed in 2021 before making their run to the Final Four, but their Wacketology score suggested the Bruins should have been closer to a 5-seed based on their resume and metrics. Similarly, San Diego State was last years national runner up as a 5-seed, but their Wacketology score would have earned them a 2-seed in this year’s tournament. In summary, both teams were much better than their seedings indicated. (For my fellow data nerds, a more in-depth description of the Wacketology process is given here.)

This year’s bracket is littered with teams I feel were undervalued based on their tournament resume, and as such, plenty of potential for double-digit seeds to make a run to the second weekend and beyond. Here are five first round matchups I will be keeping an eye on that could potentially bust brackets in round 1.

1. 11-Seed New Mexico over 6-Seed Clemson

Based on the numbers, New Mexico actually had a better resume than Clemson. The Lobos won a league that earned more bids than Clemson’s ACC, finished 13 spots higher in NET, 10 spots higher in KenPom, and finished with a better overall Q1/2 winning percentage. Our Wacketology metric rates New Mexico as deserving of the 29^th overall seed compared to Clemson’s 36^th. This New Mexico team is better than their seed indicates, and are arguably more deserving of Clemson’s seed than Clemson.

2. 10-Seed Drake over 7-Seed Washington State

Anyone who watched Drake’s epic win over Indiana State in the MVC Championship Game should want no part of the Bulldogs. Our Wacketology metrics have Drake as the 31 overall resume, one spot ahead of opponent Wazzu, who limped to a 3-3 finish and an early exit in the PAC-12 tournament. Drake is 4-1 in Q1 opportunities this season, have a winning record in Q1/2 overall, and are winners of 10 of their last 11. This is not your average Missouri Valley Conference winner. Drake could make a run here.

3. 10-Seed Nevada over 7-Seed Dayton

The committee woefully undervalued the Mountain West this season, and Nevada likely was sold short worst of all. Nevada has 6 Q1 wins this season, more than 18 teams seeded ahead of them by the committee. Wacketology rates Nevada as a deserving 6-seed, one spot ahead of the Flyers, who fell apart late in the season, including an early exit to a 6-seed in the first round of the A10 tournament. Nevada should be favored in this matchup and I expect them to win.

4. 12-Seed GCU over 5-Seed St. Mary’s

Grand Canyon is a fantastic basketball team. The Lopes are 29-4, knocked off a 5-seed San Diego State earlier this season, and have won their last 5 games by an average of 19 points. Wacketology rates GCU as 10-seed worthy, with a resume more similar to 6-seed Clemson, 9-seed TCU, and 7-seed Texas than your traditional 12-seed. St. Mary’s is an excellent basketball team and are ranked in the top 20 of all three predictive metrics used by the Committee. However, the Gaels resume metrics average outside the top 40, including a projected 7-seed in our Wacketology rankings. The Gaels should certainly be favored in this matchup, but the Lopes' high-flying offense and solid defense will push St. Mary’s for all 40 minutes.

5. 13-Seed Samford over 4-Seed Kansas

I have serious concerns about Kansas. Once upon a time, Kansas was a projected 2-seed and had the best nonconference wins in the country. Fast forward to March, and the Jayhawks have lost 4 out 5, including back-to-back games by 20+ points for the first time in nearly 100 years. The Jayhawks have very little depth or consistent guard play outside injured star Kevin McCullar Jr., both essentials for a deep run in March. Meanwhile, Samford is under-seeded according to our Wacketology rankings, and plays enough solid offense to pull off a shocker if they get hot.