Wacketology: Has BYU basketball Earned a 4-seed?
BYU just wrapped up arguably its best week of the season after knocking off no. 7 Kansas at Phog Allen Fieldhouse and overcoming a 17-point comeback over a top 40 NET team in TCU. With one week to go in the regular season, we have reached the point where we all are constantly refreshing the NET rankings and Joe Lunardi’s twitter feed to find out where BYU is projected to land on selection Sunday in two weeks.
In our latest Wacketology rankings, we’ve decided to include all teams projected in the tournament and on the bubble. Here is what our latest Wacketology rankings have to say about how BYU’s tournament resume stacks up against the field. (For more information on what Wacketology is or how it works, refer here)
Where is BYU now?
BYU is up to a 4-seed in our latest Wacketology ranking, and 16th ranked tournament resume overall. BYU’s ascension partially relates to BYU adding a Q2 win over TCU, but also benefited from BYU’s home win over Texas rising to a Q1 overnight after Texas rose to 27th in NET. Texas gave BYU it’s 6th Q1 win, landing BYU in elite resume territory. Only eight teams in the country have more Q1 wins than BYU, and all eight are projected top 3 seeds.
Had BYU been unable to complete the comeback against TCU, BYU would have retained a 5 seed, but only barely. A loss would have earned BYU a score of 30.4, just .5 points ahead of old WCC foe Gonzaga.
Credit: BYU Photo
What is BYU’s ceiling?
If BYU were to win out the regular season and win one game in the Big 12 tournament (not even I am blue goggled enough entertain the possibility of a trip to the Big 12 tournament finals), BYU would end the season with a Wacketology score of 42.9, putting BYU squarely in 3-seed territory. If we really want to get crazy and predict a Big 12 tournament title, BYU could rise as high as a 2-seed with a 50.9 Wacketology score.
What is BYU’s floor?
If BYU were to lose out, their Wacketology score falls to 29.5 and a likely 6-seed on selection Sunday, which is an incredible floor considering where expectations were for BYU coming into the season.
Credit: BYU Photo
What is BYU’s most likely seed?
I think the most likely scenario to close out the year is BYU splitting their final two games between Iowa State and Oklahoma State and winning one game in Kansas City. Such a result would put BYU as a solid 5 seed in our Wacketology rankings and a trip to Salt Lake City for round 1.
Where does this season compare all time?
I believe this is BYU’s best tournament resume since Jimmer. Yes, even better than the vaunted 2020 season that never got a chance to finish. In the NET era (since 2018), BYU has never had more than 4 Q1 wins in a single season or finished better than two games under .500 in Q1 opportunities. BYU had 6 in the 2020 and 2021 seasons combined with 10 Q1 losses to BYU’s 6 this season. Those two tournament-worthy teams finished with Wacketology scores of 35.8 and 31.9 respectively, both behind where I project BYU will finish upon season's end.
BYU is also projected to set a new program record for teams beaten in the final AP poll (4) including 3 teams in the top 11. No matter how you slice it, no BYU basketball team has ever been more prepared for a deep NCAA tournament run than this one. They are a projected top 5-seed and hold wins over a projected 2-seed, two 3-seeds, and a 4-seed. Obviously, BYU will need to avoid shooting 1-13 in a half if they want to advance to the Sweet 16, but if they can, this season’s fun may only be just beginning.
