BYU Football 2026 Bold Predictions: Is this the Year BYU Brings Home Hardware?

In some ways, the preseason is the best part of the season. Everyone is undefeated. Everyone is going to have a breakout season. Everyone is going to the College Football Playoff. In that spirit, it’s also the time for bold takes and predictions, because why not? Especially with a team ceiling as high as BYU’s.

Everyone’s got a take, but we believe our takes are the ones to trust. Why? Let's revisit last season's bold predictions:

1. BYU will go undefeated at home (nailed it)

2. Bear Bachmeier will finish with a passer rating above 140 (He was 139.9. Close enough)

3. BYU produces 3 all-americans (Sadly this missed)

4. LJ Martin cracks the top 10 all-time in rushing at BYU (He now ranks 9th)

5. BYU’s defense finishes top 10 in yards per play allowed (They finished 39th. Whoops)

6. BYU will finish the season in Arlington (easy money)

4 out of 6 ain’t bad. Honestly, that’s pretty darn excellent. Hopefully it means you can trust us, but it also means I must go bigger. Bolder. Better. Here are my five even bolder predictions for BYU’s 2026 season.

1. BYU’s defense will improve statistically under new defensive coordinator Kelly Poppinga

BYU cornerback Evan Johnson against East Carolina | BYU Photo

BYU’s defense came into last season with the expectation that it would be BYU’s best defense since 2012. Its fair to say they fell short of that bar. BYU ranked 43rd in yards allowed, 32nd in success rate allowed, and 56th in available yards allowed. The only real elite part of the defense was red zone scoring where BYU ranked 9th in touchdown percentage allowed, but also ranked 123rd in red zone visits allowed. In short, it was the ultimate bend don’t break defense.

In 2026, I don’t expect BYU to bend because this defense is both talented and perfectly suited for Kelly Poppinga’s style of play. BYU returns all but one member of a top 20 secondary, including Evan Johnson and Faletau Satuala who ranked top 15 in PFF coverage grade at their positions. That level of talent will allow Kelly Poppinga to play man coverage and deploy a linebacking unit who features some of the best pass rushers in the country in Cade Uluave and Isaiah Glasker. Up front, this is the best defensive line in the Kalani Sitake era, with a preseason All-Big 12 honoree at defensive tackle and multiple blue-chip talents on the edges. In short, I don’t expect any drop off statistically from the defense this season. In fact, I expect BYU to finish top 20 in all of the statistical categories I mentioned.

2. Bear Bachmeier will throw for 25 touchdowns in 2026

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier against Iowa State | BYU Photo

Here’s a fun but ridiculous stat for you: last season, Bear Bachmeier, finished with 15 touchdown passes. He had 14 other passes that were completed inside the 6 yard-line and were not followed by a touchdown pass. Bachmeier was 63 yards away from finishing top 10 nationally in touchdown passes and top 15 in pass efficiency. While lots of other quarterbacks complete passes inside the five, Bachmeier’s low passing touchdown pass total seemed to be more bad luck than pure ability.

I expect the ball to bounce the other way for Bachmeier for two reasons:

1. BYU has five pass-catchers over 6’4 to throw to in the red zone compared to three that 6’3 and under a year ago

2. Bear will just be a better player than he was a year ago

Bachmeier was clearly not as comfortable throwing the ball in the red zone last season as he was in other areas. In fact, Bachmeier was last in the Big 12 in red zone completion-to-touchdown ratio, completing 3.5 red zone passes to every touchdown thrown. Some of that is conservatism, some of that is Bear’s true freshmen struggles, some of that is just bad luck. But with this stable of weapons and a full offseason, Bear is going to put the ball in the end zone a lot more in 2026. Don’t believe me? Just watch the tape.

There’s a difference between making a jump and making progress. The clips from the scrimmage shows Bear made progress. This throw is 100% a jump pic.twitter.com/qsm3RIEiWb
— Joe Wheat (@joewheat27) August 21, 2026

3. BYU will finish top 15 in scoring offense

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier scores a touchdown against TCU | BYU Photo

Now a not-so-fun fact: BYU finished 32nd last year in scoring offense at just over 31 points per game. Utah finished 4th. Utah and BYU had the same number of red zone trips last season. The only difference was Utah was 1st nationally in red zone touchdown percentage last season while BYU was 69th. That is a number BYU will vastly improve upon. BYU struggled early on, converting just 57% of its red zone trips into touchdowns through its first 5 games but improved to 66% over the remainder of the season. We expect that improvement to continue into 2026 because BYU built this offense with the red zone in mind.

BYU returns a QB/RB tandem that ranked 9th nationally in combined rushing touchdowns and a consensus top 20 offensive line. In the pass game, BYU struggled because BYU only had one real red zone target last season in Chase Roberts, who caught six of Bachmeier’s eight red zone touchdown passes. BYU addressed that by adding two blue-chip tight ends and a freak of nature in 6’6 Kyler Kasper. Those weapons, plus another year of development everywhere else, is enough for me to project another 6% jump in that red zone touchdown percentage to end the year around 72%. That percentage last season would have put BYU around 35 points per game, good enough for top 15 nationally. This year, that will cease to be a hypothetical.

4. BYU will have a national award winner

BYU RB LJ Martin against Cincinnati | BYU Photo

This is probably the boldest take on the list considering how hard it is to win one of these outside the Big Ten and SEC. I don’t know who it’s going to be, but BYU has options. Eight players were named to at least one national award watchlists this season. LJ Martin is viewed as a top five running back nationally and was named to the Maxwell and Walter Camp award watchlists (award given to the nations top player). Bear Bachmeier was also named to the Maxwell watchlist along with the Davey Obrien Award. BYU was one of 8 programs with 3 players named to the Bednarik Award Watchlist (nations best defender) with Faletau Satuala, Isaiah Glasker, and Cade Uluave. Bruce Mitchell is a top four center returning per Sports Illustrated and was named to the Remington and Outland trophy lists with DT Keanu Tanuvasa. Walker Lyons was named to the Mackey Watchlist. Finally, if BYU finishes the season in the CFP, Kalani should be getting looks for national coach of the year. One of these players/coaches is going to make the jump required to be viewed as the best in the country at their position. Why? Because it’s time. It’s time for BYU to add some hardware to commemorate the tremendous run over the last three years.

5. BYU will win the Big 12

BYU CB Tre Alexander against Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship | BYU Photo

Last year, we predicted BYU would make the conference title game with far more uncertainty surrounding that team than this one has. Why not go bold again an predict that BYU will finally get over the hump. And why not BYU? Per SP+, BYU is favored in every conference game outside Utah by more than a touchdown. Getting to Arlington should be the expectation with this roster, coaching staff, and schedule. If BYU gets to the Big 12 title game, their likely opponent is Texas Tech. I think BYU takes a step forward and Tech takes a step back.

On offense, Tech returns a significant chunk of last year's roster, but quarterback is a sizable question mark. Will Hammond was awesome coming in reserve for Behren Morton against Utah. After that, he struggled, completing just 56% of his passes for 4.5 yards per attempt and a pass efficiency rating of 103.0 before his season ended with a knee injury. There are no guarantees he will automatically upgrade a Tech offense that scored zero points in the CFP. On defense, Texas Tech lost their entire defensive line to the NFL draft ,and will bet that they can strike gold in the transfer portal for a second straight season. The players they got were still exceptional, but not first-round draft pick exceptional, with their two biggest finds in Adam Trigg and Trey White coming from the G6 ranks. Maybe their talent translates and maybe it doesn’t, but it’s a question.

In the end, I think BYU is the best team in the league because of their roster, staff, continuity, and culture. If BYU takes a step forward in the trenches and in the passing game like we predict, BYU will close the season holding a trophy.

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