Breaking Down BYU's Path to the Big 12 Title Game After Iowa State Win

BYU WR Tiger Bachmeier against Iowa State | BYU Photo

For the second consecutive season, BYU is 8-0 and in the middle of a contested race to the Big 12 title game. In this article, we will break down BYU's path to the Big 12 title game with four games to go.

At minimum, BYU needs to go 2-2 over the next four games to be in the Big 12 title race. We will breakdown BYU's chances if they go 4-0, 3-1, or 2-2.

1. Win And You're In

BYU and Cincinnati are the only teams that completely control their own destiny in the Big 12 title race. If BYU goes 4-0 over the next four games, they will be in the Big 12 title game no matter what (and they will be in the College Football Playoff as well).

However, FPI gives BYU only a 15% chance to go 4-0. It's more likely than not that BYU will lose one of its final four games.

2. 3-1 Probably Gets You In

11-1 is BYU's most likely outcome at this point of the season according to FPI. Fortunately for BYU, 3-1 likely gets BYU into the Big 12 title game.

If BYU goes 3-1, it means they will have handed either Texas Tech or Cincinnati a loss and would hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over at least one of those teams. So if there is a three-way tie for first place between Tech, Cincinnati, and BYU, the Cougars would get in over the team they beat.

There are a few multi-team tiebreaker scenarios to consider as well. Three teams that could potentially be tied with BYU with one-loss at the top of the standings: Cincinnati, Houston, and Texas Tech.

If all four teams are 8-1, BYU and Texas Tech would likely get in due to their conference opponent win percentage. BYU would be in first and Texas Tech would be second.

If BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston are tied at 8-1, BYU would get in above Houston for the second spot in the title game due to conference opponent win percentage.

If BYU, Houston, and Cincinnati are tied at 8-1, BYU and Cincinnati would play in the title game.

Unless there are some weird upsets across the rest of the conference that change the projected records of BYU's conference opponents, the Cougars would very likely get in at 8-1.

3. 2-2 Will Depend on Tiebreakers

If BYU goes 2-2 to finish out the season, there are almost too many tiebreaker scenarios to consider with so many games left to play. For the purposes of this article, we'll keep it simple: 2-2 is a coin flip but probably doesn't get BYU in.

If last year is any indication, a 7-2 record would likely mean a three-way or even a four-way tie. BYU could win a three-way tie between Cincinnati, Utah, and BYU (although it is incredibly close and would depend on the outcomes of other games/would come down to conference opponent win percentage).

If the tie includes Houston, Cincinnati, and Utah, the Utes would actually beat BYU in a group tiebreaker and play in Arlington.

The best-case scenario for BYU would be a 7-2 tiebreaker with Utah and only Utah. BYU's head-to-head win over Utah would give them the edge in that scenario.

To improve BYU's chances to win a 7-2 tiebreaker, BYU needs Cincinnati and Houston to start losing games. It also wouldn't hurt if Utah dropped a game. Fortunately for BYU, Utah and Cincinnati play each other next week, so no matter what, one of those teams will be handed a loss next week.