BYU 2025 Season Predictions: Game-by-Game Preview

It’s so close we can taste the CougarTails already. BYU wrapped up Fall Camp on Tuesday and will officially turn its attention to game prep on Thursday. We at BYU On SI will do the same as we finally get to talk about real matchups for the first time in months. This is a season of uncertainty for BYU, but less so now that BYU has announced Bear Bachmeier as its starter. Even with the questions at quarterback, predictive metrics are higher on BYU than you would expect, with ESPN’s FPI projecting 9 wins for the Cougs and SP+ favoring BYU in 10 of their 12 games. Blue goggled? Perhaps. But when you go game-by-game, it’s hard not to be bullish on BYU in a newly minted Bear market.

Season Predictions

Portland State

Lavell Edwards Stadium - BYU vs SIU | BYU Photo

SP+ projected spread: BYU -35

What a difference a year makes. Last season BYU closed as just a 14-point favorite over FCS opponent SIU to open the season. Fast forward a year and BYU is a 5-touchdown favorite over Portland State. BYU fans still have PTSD from the 20-6 disaster against PSU in 2017, but this is a new era. Portland State finished 3-8 last season and gave up over 35 points 7 times last season. BYU doesn’t lose to FCS teams, and that won’t change this year. BYU rolls early and often behind LJ Martin and a dominant defense.

Prediction: BYU 45-10 PSU

Stanford

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier in Fall Camp | BYU Photo

SP+ projected spread: BYU -17.5

Few programs have experienced more turmoil this offseason than Stanford. Head coach Troy Taylor was dismissed back in March and with him went 3 projected starters, including Bear Bachmeier to BYU. Even before his dismissal, things have not been looking up for a Stanford program that has won 12 games in the last 4 seasons combined. Stanford does return 73% of its returning production on defense this season, but 73% of bad is still bad. Stanford projects to be 92nd in defensive efficiency and will provide meaningful reps in a rare revenge game for a true freshman quarterback.

Prediction: BYU 35-13 Stanford

@ ECU

SP+ projected spread: BYU -13.4

Yet another team that will give BYU fans heartburn. BYU has a history of losing these kinds of G5 road games on the east coast, but this is a new team and a new era. ECU did go 8-5 last season but got hammered in the portal this offseason. The pirates rank 103rd nationally in returning production and 117th on defense. Traveling cross country is not ideal, but BYU does have a bye week beforehand to get healthy and get the freshman Bachmeier some much needed reps before his first road start. This game feels a lot like the Wyoming game from 2024. Trap game on paper that turns out to be easier than anticipated. They say defense travels and BYU has a good one. BYU forces multiple turnovers as BYU pulls it out on the road.

Prediction: BYU 30-13 ECU

@ Colorado

SP+ projected spread: BYU -1.2

This will be BYU’s first real test of the season in Boulder. The argument for a BYU victory is simple. These two teams played 8 months ago and BYU won by 3 touchdowns with a QB that finished with under 160 yards passing. One of those teams lost two Heisman finalists and more total production and it’s not BYU. The Buffs still have plenty of talent, though, including projected QB starter Kaiden Salter who was a multi-year starter at Liberty. CU certainly has the experience edge at QB in this matchup, but Salter’s 115th ranked turnover-worthy play rate in 2024 is music to a Jay Hill defense's ears. BYU finds a way to score just enough to improve to 4-0.

Prediction: BYU 24 – 21 Colorado

West Virginia

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier celebrates with brother Tiger Bachmeier at Fall Camp | BYU Photo

SP+ projected spread: BYU -10.3

It seems WVU still spends its offseason watching Tayvon Austin highlights as they decided to bring back Rich Rodriguez as its head coach. That coaching change featured a complete roster overhaul that returns just 52% of production and 54 incoming transfers. It appears the glory days will have to wait another year, though, as Rich Rod’s roster assessment during Fall Camp has been less than kind. He announced on day 2 of fall camp that they were still looking for another running back or two in the portal. Typically not a good sign in August. Projected QB starter Nicco Marchiol had moments in limited action in 2024, posting a solid 153.5 rating on 56 attempts, but starting on a short week after a cross-country flight to Provo feels like a scheduling loss at a minimum. BYU takes advantage of a roster in flux as Bear Bachmeier has a breakout game against the 128th-ranked pass defense in 2024.

BYU 34 – 21 WVU

@ Arizona

SP+ projected spread: BYU -4.5

Arizona is a tough team to figure out. They do return Noah Fifita who was a freshman sensation before falling back to earth in 2024 under new head coach Brett Brennan. Arizona is projected to be right around the national average in both projected offense (51st) and defense (66th). Arizona was not a good football team last year, and they were also decimated by injuries on defense. They also rank 15th in returning production from a roster that was projected to be a Big 12 contender last season. The Wildcats make BYU sweat, and not just because of the Arizona heat, but the way BYU knocked Fifita around last year looms too large in my mind.

Prediction: BYU 28 – 24 Arizona

Utah

SP+ projected spread: BYU -0.2

There is nothing pretty or beautiful about Holy War football. This game might as well be played in the Little Sahara sand dunes, as it will not affect the pace of play. This is about as even of a matchup as there has been in years. Utah’s offense should be much improved under new offensive coordinator Jason Beck, but lacks the depth at wide receiver or tight end to test BYU’s secondary. Utah’s vaunted defense is not as talented as in years past, but they might not need to be as Morgan Scalley has made a living creating nightmares for young quarterbacks. Home field swings this for the Cougars in a rock fight with more combined rushing yards than passing.

Prediction: BYU 20-17 Utah

@ Iowa State

BYU Football Helmet — BYU Football Fall Camp | BYU Photo

SP+ projected spread: Iowa State -4.3

This one feels like a scheduling loss for the Cougs. Iowa State returns 61% of production from a Big12 championship game roster and traveling to Ames the week after the Holy War feels like a step too far. RB Abu Sama should have a bounce-back junior season as an Iowa State defense that was plagued by injury a year ago returns to normal. BYU struggles to generate offense in a hostile environment and runs out of gas passing under the East Gateway Bridge.

Prediction: BYU 17-31 ISU

@ Texas Tech

BYU linebacker Isaiah Glasker in Alamo Bowl win over Colorado | BYU Photo

SP+ projected spread: TTU -5.3

Texas Tech spent millions on the nations 2nd ranked transfer portal class this offseason, and returns 71% of returning production from a team that beat both teams in last year’s Big12 title game. On paper, BYU should have no shot here. Still, teams this reliant on the portal take time to gel and Tech lost their projected RB1 for the season earlier this week. BYU will be coming off a bye and will be as healthy as they have been in over a month. The Cougs give Tech a scare, but they leave Lubbock disappointed while getting pelted by tortillas.

Prediction: BYU 24-28 TTU

TCU

BYU running back LJ Martin runs for a touchdown against Oklahoma State | BYU Photo

SP+ projected spread: BYU -0.4

Every year, BYU wins a revenge game they probably shouldn’t. This feels like that game. If these predictions hold, BYU will by clawing for their Big12 lives as they welcome TCU to town. TCU returns the bulk of a top 25 offense including 3-year starter Josh Hoover who lit up the Cougars in Fort Worth 2 years ago. This is a different defense though. TCU ranked 97th last season in yards per carry while this BYU defense has the horses to improve on its top 30 ranking in yards per carry allowed. BYU forces TCU to become one-dimensional as Hoover makes just enough mistakes to spur LJ Martin and the BYU offense.

Prediction: BYU 31-24 TCU

@ Cincinnati

BYU linebacker Jack Kelly against SMU | BYU Photo

SP+ projected spread: BYU -4.1

If any team in the Big12 has the potential for an Arizona State turn around in 2025, it's Cincinnati. The Bearcats are 14th in defensive returning production from last season including a one-man wrecking crew at DT in Don Corleone. The Bearcats finished 5-7 last season but 1-4 in one-score games, suggesting a regression to the mean could be on the horizon. BYU’s comeback bid falls short as a sluggish start to the run game and early freshmen mistakes is just too much to overcome in the second half.

BYU 24-27 Cincinnati

UCF

BYU linebackers Isaiah Glasker and Aisea Moa make a tackle against UCF | BYU Photo

SP+ projected spread: BYU -10.1

No one should expect much from UCF this season. The Knights are last in the Big12 in returning production from a 5-7 team that quit down the stretch last season. The Knights did try to bring back the 2017 magic by rehiring Scott Frost, but Frost has had 1 winning season in 7 tries as a head coach. Averages say that trend will continue. BYU’s defense shuts down a hapless UCF team that’s all too excited to escape the November cold in Provo while BYU finishes with 9 wins and a second straight CFP ranking.

Prediction: BYU 34-10 UCF

Final prediction 9-3