BYU at Iowa State Will Either Narrow Big 12 Title Race or Ignite Chaos

BYU defensive backs Tayvion Beasley and Faletau Satuala against Utah | BYU Photo

No. 11 BYU and Iowa State will square off on Saturday afternoon. The Cyclones have lost two consecutive games and have fallen behind in the conference title race. However, after a bye week to correct some things, Iowa State has a chance to get back in the title race with a win over BYU.

The BYU-Iowa State game will have major implications on the Big 12 standings. The outcome of this game will either narrow the list of Big 12 contenders or ignite chaos. Let's break it all down.

A BYU Win Could Narrow the Title Race

After last week's results, seven Big 12 teams have better than a 1% chance to win the league: Texas Tech, BYU, Cincinnati, Utah, Arizona State, Iowa State, and TCU.

However, FPI really sees this as a five-team race. There is a 95% chance that one of these five teams will win the Big 12: Texas Tech, BYU, Cincinnati, Utah, and Arizona State. FPI projects a 72.1% chance that either BYU or Cincinnati will win the league. If BYU and Texas Tech continue to win, this will quickly turn into a two-team race.

That's where the BYU-Iowa State game comes in. Iowa State is the second most difficult game remaining on BYU's schedule per FPI. A win over the Cyclones would increase BYU's chances to win 11 regular season games from 35% to 52%. It's extremely likely that 11 games would earn BYU a spot in the Big 12 title game.

A BYU win over Iowa State would knock the Cyclones out of the race officially, and it could really decrease Utah's chances as well. Since BYU has a head-to-head win over Utah, the Utes really need BYU to lose three conference games to make the title game (unless there is a big group of two-loss teams that allows the Utes to sneak in).

A BYU win would decrease the chances of a dramatic multi-team tiebreaker to determine the title game participants.

An Iowa State Win Would Ignite Chaos in the Big 12 Race

History suggests that any team in the league with two losses or less is still in the title race. If Iowa State beats BYU, the Cyclones could ignite chaos in the Big 12 title race.

A BYU loss would open the door for not only Iowa State, but teams like Utah, TCU, and Houston as well as the calendar turns to November. With so many games remaining, there are too many scenarios to go through in this article.

But think about this: a BYU loss could create a somewhat realistic scenario where there could be five two-loss teams tied for second place at 7-2: Utah, BYU, Arizona State, Cincinnati, and Iowa State. Or even six teams tied for first place: Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, Arizona State, Cincinnati, and Houston.