BYU Football Debuts at No. 73 in First FPI Rankings

Sep 23, 2023; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Brigham Young Cougars wide receiver Keelan Marion (17) scores a touchdown against Kansas Jayhawks linebacker JB Brown (28) during the second half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

On Monday, ESPN released the first iteration of the 2024 college football FPI rankings. BYU debuted at no. 73 nationally and near the bottom of the Big 12. FPI projects BYU to finish with a record of 4.8-7.2. Below are the updated rankings for the new Big 12 conference, which will include Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado.

1. Kansas (17th nationally)
2. Kansas State (22nd nationally)
3. Arizona (24th nationally)
4. Oklahoma State (26th nationally)
5. Utah (27th nationally)
6. Texas Tech (29th nationally)
7. TCU (30th nationally)
8. UCF (32nd nationally)
9. West Virginia (35th nationally)
10. Colorado (36th nationally)
11. Iowa State (47th nationally)
12. Baylor (55th nationally)
13. Arizona State (63rd nationally)
14. Cincinnati (65th nationally)
15. BYU (73rd nationally)
16. Houston (78th nationally)

FPI gives BYU a 35.4% chance to get to six wins and reach bowl eligibility. They also give BYU a 0.5% chance to win the Big 12 and a 0.6% chance to make the College Football Playoff. The Cougars have a difficult schedule once again in the Big 12 - BYU is set to face the top five teams in the preseason FPI rankings.

FPI expects another logjam in the Big 12 conference standings in 2024. No team in the conference has a 20% chance or better to win the conference. Kansas has the best odds to win the conference at 17.4%. The Big 12 will have more parity than any other Power Four league. For reference, Georgia has the best odds to win the SEC at 32.8%. Oregon has the best odds to win that Big Ten at 37.5%, and Florida State has a 26% chance to win the ACC.

Here are the teams with the best chance to win the Big 12 in 2024 according to ESPN FPI.

1. Kansas - 17.4%
2. Kansas State - 16.0%
3. Arizona - 11.5%
4. Oklahoma State - 8.5%
5. Utah - 8.2%
6. TCU - 7.9%
7. Texas Tech - 7.6%
8. UCF - 7.0%
9. West Virginia - 5.0%
10. Colorado - 4.1%
11. Iowa State - 3.2%
12. Baylor - 1.6%
13. Arizona State - 0.6%
14. Cincinnati - 0.6%
15. BYU - 0.5%
16. Houston - 0.3%

If BYU exceeds expectations, it will be driven by roster continuity. Last year, BYU experienced the most roster turnover in program history. That won't be the case going into 2024. BYU returns more production in 2024 than they did in 2023 and they return most starters on both sides of the ball. It's up to BYU's coaching staff to develop the returning talent they have. 

If BYU basketball has taught us anything this season, it's that roster continuity can be a greater competitive advantage than ever before. In an era where rosters are turning over more than ever, a team that retains their talent can have an advantage over their peers. That will be the key to BYU outperforming their FPI ranking and getting back to a bowl game in 2024.