BYU Has the Big 12's Toughest Remaining Schedule: What Will it Take to Play in the Big 12 Title Game?

BYU WR Chase Roberts against WVU | BYU Photo

BYU is 5-0 and 2-0 in conference play. The Cougars will hit the road for a game that will kickoff a six-game gauntlet spanning seven weeks. BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick called it the most difficult stretch of games in BYU history.

Here are the most difficult remaining schedules in the Big 12 according to ESPN FPI.

• BYU (27th nationally)
• Kansas (38)
• Kansas State (39)
• UCF (41)
• Utah (42)
• Oklahoma State (44)
• ASU (46)
• Arizona (47)
• WVU (48)
• Baylor (50)
• Cincinnati (51)
• Iowa State (52)
• TCU (53)
• Colorado (55)
• Texas Tech (59)
• Houston (64)

Given BYU's challenging schedule, what will it take to compete for a Big 12 championship? Here are the three steps to BYU's most likely path to the Big 12 title game.

1. Take Care of Business Against Arizona

If we assume that a 7-2 conference record is the minimum record required to make the title game, BYU really needs to beat Arizona to have a chance to get there. The Wildcats are the worst of the six teams that BYU is about to play.

A win over Arizona would only minimally increase BYU's chances to get to seven conference wins, but a loss would significantly reduce BYU's chances to get to seven wins. According to ESPN FPI win probabilities, BYU currently has a 45% chance to reach seven or more wins in conference play. A win over Arizona would increase BYU's chances to get to seven wins to 55%.

A loss to Arizona would drop BYU's chances to win seven or more games to 22%.

2. Find a Way to 3-2 Over the Next Five

After Arizona, BYU hosts Utah before traveling to Iowa State. After a bye week, the Cougars take on Texas Tech in Lubbock. Then BYU will host the TCU Horned Frogs before taking on Cincinnati on the road.

There is a chance for all five of those teams to be ranked then they play BYU.

This is by far the most challenging portion of the schedule. If BYU could manage to win three of the five games in this stretch, that is BYU's most likely path to a 7-2 conference record.

BYU would have a 60% chance to win at least three of those five games according to FPI.

3. Beat UCF

There's really no scenario where BYU can lose to UCF and compete for a Big 12 title. The Cougars would need to beat the Knights to have a chance to play in Arlington.

At that point, BYU would need the tiebreaker dominoes to fall their way. Last year, BYU was the first team out of the Big 12 title game due to tiebreaker rules. BYU's challenging schedule would benefit BYU in a tiebreaker scenario if it comes to that.