BYU Rooting Guide: Key Week 5 Games for Big 12 and Playoff Stakes

BYU football will be back in action on Saturday against TCU. Obviously, BYU needs to take care of business against the Horned Frogs. No game around the country will impact BYU more than the game being played in Fort Wroth. Outside of BYU-TCU, there are other games games that will impact the Cougars in week five. In this article, we're breaking down the week five rooting guide for BYU fans.

Games Around the Big 12

This section focuses on the Big 12. Most Big 12 teams will play conference games this weekend. Like any weekend with a full conference slate, there are multiple games that will impact BYU.

Colorado over no. 12 Texas Tech

Texas Tech has one of the easiest schedules in the conference. Even though the Red Raiders aren't nearly as good as they were a season ago, they are one of the primary threats to take one of the spots in the Big 12 championship game. It would significantly help BYU's Big 12 title chances if the Red Raiders dropped a road contest at Colorado.

Arizona over Cincinnati

This game could go either way since BYU plays both teams in Big 12 play. However, since BYU already has a win over Arizona, it's best for the Cougars if Arizona strings together a few wins and cracks the top 25.

Iowa State over West Virginia & UCF over Houston

Based on Big 12 tiebreaker rules, it's better if the teams BYU will face take down the teams BYU will not face. The Cougars play Iowa State and UCF and they will not face Houston or WVU. Therefore, it's best for BYU if Iowa State and UCF win.

Top 25 Games

Using SP+ game probabilities, there is a 79% chance that a team ranked ahead of BYU will lose this weekend. However, that includes teams like Alabama and Ohio State that could lose to teams that would leapfrog BYU in the rankings. There is a 56% chance that either Georgia, Florida, Indiana, or Miami will lose this weekend per SP+.

No. 7 Alabama @ no. 16 Mississippi State

Alabama and Mississippi State are undefeated. If Alabama wins, they will stay firmly ahead of the Cougars in the rankings. If Mississippi State wins, the Bulldogs might jump into the top 10 like Florida did last week. In the long run, it benefits BYU that one of these teams will suffer their first loss of the season on Saturday.

Vanderbilt over no. 2 Georgia

It's unlikely that Georgia will lose at home to Vanderbilt. In fact, it will be surprising if this isn't a blowout by the third quarter. A Georgia loss would benefit BYU even if it's unlikely.

No. 25 Missouri over no. 8 Florida

One week after jumping all the way up into the top 10, Florida faces a road test at Missouri. The Tigers shouldn't be ranked at this point based on their resume, but they do have a quarterback that can keep them in games. It would benefit BYU if the Gators suffered their first loss.

No. 5 Ohio State @ no. 14 Iowa

College GameDay will be in town for Ohio State-Iowa. If Iowa wins, the Hawkeyes will likely jump into the top 10. The Buckeyes would fall out of the top 10, as it will be their second loss of the season.

No. 4 Miami @ Clemson

An upset that would really benefit BYU: Clemson over no. 4 Miami. Based on Clemson's offensive output so far this season, this might be the least likely upset on this list.

No. 6 Indiana @ Rutgers

Indiana has played with fire but it hasn't been burned. Rutgers is a bad football team, but maybe the Hoosiers could stumble in their first road game. Indiana has a 95% chance to win per SP+.

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