Draft Data Suggests BYU Has Been College Football's Greatest Outlier

BYU has been the biggest outlier in college football over the last two seasons

BYU CB Tre Alexander against Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship | BYU Photo

On Saturday, the 2026 NFL Draft came to an end. Despite winning 12 games last season, only two former BYU players heard their names called in the 2026 NFL Draft. Linebacker Jack Kelly was selected in the sixth round by the New York Giants before tight end Carsen Ryan was selected in the seventh round by the Cleveland Browns.

The 2026 draft was the second draft in as many years where BYU was underrepresented relative to its on-field success. Zero BYU players were drafted in the 2025 NFL Draft following an 11-2 season in 2024.

When you take a step back and look at the data from the last two NFL Drafts, one thing stands out: the Cougars have been college football's greatest outlier the last two seasons.

BYU has won 85.2% of its games the last two seasons. Only Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State, and Notre Dame have better winning percentages over that time. From 2024-2025, nine teams in college football had winning percentages above 79%. Excluding BYU, the other eight teams averaged 16.1 NFL Draft picks each, and all of them have had at least 10 players drafted. BYU, meanwhile, is the far outlier. The Cougars had just two players drafted over the last two years.

Team	Win % (2024-2025)	Draft Picks (2025-2026)
1. Indiana	93.1%	10
2. Oregon	89.7%	17
3. Ohio State	86.7%	25
4. Notre Dame	85.7%	12
5. BYU	85.2%	2
6. Georgia	82.1%	21
7. Ole Miss	82.1%	10
8. Miami	79.3%	16
9. Texas	79.3%	18

The data suggests that no team in college football has done more with its talent than BYU. The image below shows all Power Four teams sorted by their winning percentages over the last two seasons and the number of draft picks from those schools.

Winning percentage and NFL Draft picks of P4 teams (Prior two years) | BYU On SI

The Cougars have been winning at a higher clip than any program with less than 10 draft picks over the last two seasons. BYU is an outlier in its own league as well. BYU ranks first in the Big 12 in winning percentage from 2024-2025 and 13th in draft picks over the same time.

BYU is just three years into life in a Power Four conference. The Cougars, frankly, lacked talent when they joined the Big 12. Given how long it can take BYU recruits to matriculate into the program, it was anticipated that BYU would need time to build a roster worthy of competing for a Big 12 championship. Instead, the Cougars have accelerated their timeline to compete for championships. BYU was a few yards away from playing for the Big 12 title in 2024. In 2025, BYU lost to Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game.

As an outlier, BYU is at risk of regressing to the mean. To avoid a regression, stacking more talented rosters will be paramount. The Cougars appear to be on their way - they signed the best recruiting class in program history back in December, and they have multiple players that could be drafted in the 2027 NFL Draft.

Kalani Sitake deserves credit for developing a culture that has found a way to win faster than most teams that have made the transition to a power league. If Sitake can maintain his culture while more talented recruits are added to the roster, BYU will have the chance to be an annual contender in the Big 12.

Why aren't more BYU players being drafted?

So why aren't more BYU players getting drafted? In the opinion of this author, it boils down to three factors.

1. BYU's high school recruiting from 2020-2022

Since a large portion of BYU's signing classes serve two-year missions, it can take six or even seven years for a high school signee to become a BYU graduate. Therefore, the players that have been graduating from BYU would have signed in the 2020-2022 signing classes. BYU's average recruiting ranking over that time was 68th nationally. Here is a sample of some of the players that BYU signed in those classes that either never enrolled or never contributed.

1. Logan Pili
2. Alex Muti
3. Tate Romney
4. Josh Wilson
5. Devin Downing
6. Nukuluve Helu
7. Koa Eldredge
8. Jake Griffin
9. Terrence Fall
10. Dean Jones
11. Ty Burke
12. Elia Migao
13. Weston Jones
14. Dylan Rollins
15. Nathan Hoke
16. Cade Parrish
17. Sione Hingano
18. Kyson Hall
19. Dallin Havea
20. Quenton Rice
21. Bentley Redden
22. Ricky Wolfgramm
23. Micah Wilson
24. Lisala Tai
25. Peter Falaniko
26. Talin Togiai
27. Vae Soifua
28. Korbyn Green
29. Zion Allen
30. Nathaniel Gillis
31. Zoom Esplin
32. Porter Small
33. Brooks Jones

You get the point. BYU's high school recruiting in those days was not at a level where BYU would expect to produce multiple draft picks per year. The Cougars have largely been competitive in the Big 12 by replacing a lot of players with transfers, and they have had a very high hit rate on transfers.

It's not a coincidence that the last three draft picks out of BYU came to Provo via the transfer portal (Kingsley Suamataia, Jack Kelly, Carsen Ryan).

2. Some of BYU's best players have been younger players

Because BYU's recruiting got so much better when they made the transition to the Big 12, a lot of BYU's best players have been younger players. Faletau Satuala, for example, might be the best NFL prospect on BYU's roster. Satuala was a true sophomore in 2025 and one of the better safeties in the Big 12.

On offense, BYU was led by true freshman Bear Bachmeier at quarterback and junior LJ Martin at running back. Martin declined to enter the draft and chose to return to BYU for one final season.

BYU ranks sixth nationally in returning production on defense. One year from now, it's probably safe to assume that multiple players on BYU's defense will have been drafted in the 2027 draft. The Cougars are viewed as one of the favorites to win the Big 12 thanks to the returning production on the roster.

3. Missions can push a late-round talent out of the draft

As mentioned, a lot of BYU players take two years to serve missions prior to enrolling at BYU. That means a lot of BYU players will be two years older than some of the prospects with similar talent. That can push players out of the draft that otherwise would have been late-round selections.

Tyler Batty is a good example of that. Batty signed with BYU clear back in 2017 before he served a mission. Batty had a productive career at BYU and earned a trip to the NFL Combine after the 2024 season. However, he was 25 by the time his name was in the draft. Batty went undrafted and signed with the Minnesota Vikings as a free agent.

Perhaps it's not a big surprise that Batty eventually overcame the odds and made the 53-man roster. There are a lot of BYU players that have had long NFL careers that started as undrafted free agents. The mission element is a driving factor behind that.