ESPN FPI Predicts BYU vs. Utah Top 10 Showdown, Updates BYU Win Total

When BYU takes on Utah, it is the biggest sporting event in the state of Utah every year. This year, the stakes are higher than ever before. It will be the first time both teams are ranked in the top 10. The official rankings for both teams won't be unveiled until the CFP rankings are released on Tuesday, but if the AP Poll is any indication, BYU-Utah will be a matchup of two teams in the top seven.

Here's what ESPN FPI says about BYU-Utah and the remainder of BYU's schedule.

BYU FPI remaining win probabilities: at Utah 34.3%, Baylor 69.5%, at Kansas 71.8%, Cincinnati 84.5%. — The win probabilities for the final four games on BYU's schedule | BYU On SI

ESPN FPI gives BYU a 34.3% chance to beat Utah on the road. This will be the last time this season that BYU will not be favored by FPI. For what it's worth, FPI gave BYU just a 25% chance to beat Notre Dame before the Cougars took down the Fighting Irish.

A Narrow Path to 11 Regular Season Wins

BYU still controls its own destiny in the Big 12 title race. If the Cougars finish 11-1, they will be in the Big 12 title game no matter what. However, FPI projects a narrow path to 11 wins. In fact, BYU's chances to reach 11 wins decreased after an underwhelming performance against Arizona State. That, combined with dominant wins by upcoming opponents Utah and Baylor, decreased BYU's outlook to reach 11 wins. FPI gives BYU a 57% chance to at least reach 10 wins.

Bar chart of updated ESPN FPI regular season win total probabilities for BYU football following the Arizona State game — BYU's chances to reach each win threshold after a win over ASU | BYU On SI

A win over Utah would significantly increase BYU's chances to win out. BYU's chances to reach 11 regular season wins would go from 14.5% to 42.2%.

Where FPI could be wrong about BYU

FPI is just an analytical-based prediction model that can miss key context. So where could BYU be wrong about BYU? First, FPI can't account for injuries, and BYU is about to get one of its best players back: LJ Martin. Martin's return could help BYU outperform model expectations.

The other thing that computers struggle to compute when it comes to BYU is style of play. BYU's style of play prevents them from blowing out inferior opponents at times, but it also helps them stay competitive against the best teams they play.

BYU is a very, very hard to blow out. It takes a suffocating defense like the one Texas Tech fielded last year. BYU is one of a small handful of teams that has not trailed by double digits all season.

The Latest on the Big 12 Title Race

BYU's chances to win the Big 12 dropped after beating Arizona State. Why? The model predicted BYU would win by 18. Instead, BYU won by 7. Therefore, the model downgraded BYU's chances to win each remaining game and, therefore, win the conference title. Per FPI, Utah is the clear favorite in the Big 12 as the calendar turns to November. There is an 87% chance that either Utah, Texas Tech, or BYU will win the league per FPI.

Houston and Arizona have the profile of teams that could win the championship, but they already have two losses. They will have to win out and get some tiebreaker luck to make it to Arlington.

Big 12 title probabilities: Utah 48.4%, Texas Tech 21.6%, BYU 17.1%, Houston 6.2%, Arizona 4.3%, OSU 1.2%, Baylor 1.2%. — Big 12 championship probabilities per ESPN FPI | BYU On SI

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