ESPN FPI Predicts BYU Bounce Back Against ASU and Updates Big 12 Title Odds

After suffering a crushing loss to UCF, BYU will be back at home to take on the ASU Sun Devils. It will be the first time BYU has played ASU since losing to ASU in what ended up determing the Big 12 championship that season.

Here's what ESPN FPI says about BYU-ASU and the remainder of BYU's schedule.

BYU football ESPN FPI win probabilities: ASU 90.2%, Utah 42.2%, Baylor 77.8%, Kansas 75.7%, and Cincinnati 83.6%. — FPI win probabilities for the remaining five games on BYU's schedule | BYU On SI

FPI gives BYU a 90.2% chance to beat ASU. ASU is the easiest remaining game on BYU's schedule, per FPI. BYU has at least a 75% chance to win every game besides the Utah game. The BYU-Utah game looks like it will be in the tossup range when the Cougars travel to Salt Lake in a few weeks.

BYU's chances to reach 11 wins plummet

Last week after beating Notre Dame, BYU had a 55% chance to finish with 11 or more wins. That dropped to 19% with a loss to UCF.

BYU football ESPN FPI win total probabilities: 7+ (99.9%), 8+ (98.9%), 9+ (90.5%), 10+ (61.5%), and 11 wins (18.7%). — The chances for BYU to reach each win threshold | BYU On SI

BYU's playoff hopes will likely ride on the rivalry game at Utah in a few weeks. Despite losing to UCF last week, we believe BYU will take care of business against the rest of its schedule. If BYU finishes 11-1, it will go to the playoff regardless of what happens in the Big 12 championship game.

If BYU finishes 10-2, they are probably not going to make the cut as an at-large, unless the playoff bubble is weak this season. A 10-2 BYU team would probably need to win a tiebreaker to make the championship game and win the championship game. Speaking of the playoff, BYU had a 70.6% chance to make the playoff before losing to UCF. That dropped to 49.0% after losing to the Knights. No Big 12 team saw their playoff hopes drop more than Texas Tech last week.

Six Big 12 Teams in the Playoff Hunt

There are six teams in the Big 12 that have greater than a 1% chance to make the playoff at this point of the season. Utah, after beating Houston, has the best odds to make the 12-team field. BYU isn't far behind the Utes.

Big 12 CFP playoff probabilities post-UCF: Utah 60.1%, BYU 49.0%, Texas Tech 32.9%, Houston 20.0%, and Arizona 19.7%. — Playoff odds of Big 12 favorites | BYU On SI

Arizona is not getting enough national attention. The Wildcats have not lost since losing to BYU in week two, and they have dominated some decent teams in Iowa State and Cincinnati. Noah Fifita and co. could turn the Big 12 race on its head this week if they beat Texas Tech in Lubbock.

Also, Utah has to play at Arizona after what will be an emotional rivalry game against BYU. The Wildcats control their own destiny in the Big 12 title race.

The Big 12 Title Race is Still Wide Open

The race for the Big 12 title is wide open after BYU and Texas Tech lost last week. No team has better than a 35% chance to win the league, per FPI.

Big 12 title odds post-UCF: Utah 34.3%, BYU 22.0%, Texas Tech 18.5%, Arizona 9.9%, Houston 8.2%, and Oklahoma State 5.9%. — Big 12 title chances for the six Big 12 favorites | BYU On SI

The top of the Big 12 is about to beat itself up. BYU plays Utah. Utah plays Arizona as well, and the Utes also have a dangerous road game at Cincinnati this week.

Texas Tech has to play at Oklahoma State and the Red Raiders host Arizona this weekend. Houston has the most favorable schedule remaining of the Big 12 contenders, although they are the only contender that already has two conference losses.

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