Five Reasons BYU Football Can Beat Kansas
The moment has finally arrived, as 3-0 BYU plays its first conference game in over a decade. The opponent? The Kansas Jayhawks, who are also 3-0 and in the midst of a football renaissance that hasn’t been seen since Mark Mangino was roaming the sidelines in Lawrence. While Kansas enters as a 9.5-point favorite, most computer models have this as one of the tighter matchups in the country on a loaded college football Saturday slate. This game is a litmus test for both programs while vaulting the winner into the upper echelon of Big 12 members. Here are five reasons why BYU can pull out the win in front of a sold out Booth.
1. Slovis is better under pressure
Kansas plays an aggressive style of defense and has been effective in getting after opposing team’s quarterbacks so far this season. The Jayhawks have recorded 41 pressures this season including 9 sacks and 5 QB hits. The good news is that won’t be anything new to Kedon Slovis. Slovis has faced pressure on 40% of his drop backs this season and has arguably been better in the face of it. The BYU signal-caller is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt when under pressure compared to just 6.1 yards per attempt when kept clean to go along with 3 touchdowns and an NFL quarterback rating of 101.6.
Credit: BYU Photo
2. The jury is still out on Kansas’ defense
While Kansas’ defensive stats have significantly improved from their 124th ranked defense a year ago, the advanced metrics are still out on the Jayhawks. ESPN’s FPI ranks Kansas 112th in defensive efficiency while Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranks Kansas 91st in total defense. Kansas also allows a touchdown on 30% of drives and is 105th in drives allowed that end in zero or negative yards according Give 'Em Hell Brigham’s Jeff Hansen. Is the Kansas defense good? Or do they look good because they haven't face an offense in the top 85 of offensive efficiency? Time will tell, but BYU’s offense, even with their current struggles, is better than anything Kansas has faced this season.
3. This is BYU’s first Big 12 game
In years past, BYU has followed up emotional wins with emotional letdowns. I don’t foresee that happening against Kansas. BYU has had this game circled on their schedule before BYU even knew who the opponent would be. This game is the culmination of over 50 years of preparation for BYU and I think BYU will rise to meet the moment. If BYU gets beat by Kansas, it wont be because they are suffering from a hangover after Arkansas.
4. BYU is built to contain Kansas’s rushing attack
In a battle of strengths, something's got to give. Kansas is top 20 nationally in rush offense with 216 yards per game. Meanwhile, BYU allows a paltry 99.7 yards per game on the ground on just 3.32 yards per carry. BYU has been stingy against the run this season, allowing only eight runs this season of 10 or more yards while 51 of 75 total run plays run plays against BYU have been considered failures according to PFF. Overall, BYU’s defense ranks 15th nationally in defensive efficiency according to ESPN’s FPI. While Kansas’s offense is formidable, they have yet to play a defense in the top 75 and just ran for just 3.6 yards per carry against the 130th rated defense in Nevada. Devin Neal is nightmare fuel for people who were fans of BYU in 2022, but this defense can contain lightning in a bottle.
Credit: BYU Photo
5. Kansas is prone to give up big plays
While Kansas’ defense has improved significantly from a year ago, their aggression leaves them exposed to explosive plays. The Jayhawks allow a 10+ yard run on one out of every seven rushing attempts and have yet to force an incompletion on throws 20+ yards down the field. I like Kansas’ secondary, but they haven’t faced a quarterback that can test them downfield. Even so, the Jayhawks are allowing a 60% completion rate and 13.2 yards per attempt on throws of 10+ air yards. BYU's offense hasn't fully clicked this season, but BYU offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick loves to push the ball down the field and explosive plays will be available if BYU’s offense can execute.
Prediction
Kansas’ offense is legit. Jalon Daniels and Devin Neal might be as good of a QB/RB tandem as any in college football - only Oklahoma has a higher offensive efficiency rating. Couple that with an excellent offensive line and it’s hard to imagine Kansas being completely shut down when they have the ball. Still, BYU showed just last week that they can limit elite playmaking quarterbacks after holding preseason all-SEC QB KJ Jefferson to a 37.1 QBR, 13 carries for 21 yards, and 2 turnovers. Jalon Daniels is a different type of animal, but there is reason to believe that BYU can limit the damage if he escapes the pocket.
On offense, BYU will need to put together their first complete game if they want to keep up with such a high-powered Kansas attack. BYU’s offense has been the definition of inconsistency, but they have shown enough progress from week one to week three that I believe they can exploit Kansas’ defense for enough big plays to keep Kansas on their heels.
I think BYU meets the moment for the second straight week. BYU eclipses the 400-yard mark and the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time this season as Kedon Slovis connects for at least two touchdowns through the air. On defense, BYU continues their clutch play and holds Kansas under 50% on third down for the first time this season. Kansas will get theirs on offense, but BYU finds a way to weather the storm and get their Big 12 membership started off on the right foot.
BYU 34 – 28 Kansas
