FPI Predicts BYU vs Arizona, Updates BYU's Projected 2026 Win Total

The BYU football program kicked off the 2026 season with a dominant win over Utah Tech. BYU will turn the page to week two for what will be one of the most important games of the season: the conference opener against Arizona.

BYU needed double overtime to beat the Wildcats in Tucson last season. Arizona has this game circled and will be motivated to avenge last season's loss. ESPN's FPI predicted the BYU-Arizona game and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2026 season.

FPI gives BYU a 76.8% chance to beat the Wildcats. The Cougars are favored by seven points according to DraftKings.

The Wildcats are coming off a 35-7 win over FCS foe NAU. BYU had a 73.8% chance to beat Arizona in the preseason. BYU's chances to win improved after week one.

FPI Updates Prediction for BYU's 2026 Schedule

BYU's projected record dropped from 8.9-3.1 to 8.8-3.2. That says less about BYU and more about a few of the teams on BYU's schedule.

Arizona State, UCF, and Kansas were dominant against FCS foes which slightly decreased BYU's projected outlook.

Below are the game-by-game predictions after week one.

Arizona: 76.8% (73.8% in the preseason)
Colorado State: 92.1% (94.7% in the preseason)
TCU: 71.6% (64.9% in the preseason)
Iowa State: 90.0% (89.0% in the preseason)
Notre Dame: 26.4% (24.0% in the preseason)
UCF: 62.8% (67.7% in the preseason)
ASU: 75.1% (78.9% in the prseason)
Utah: 53.6% (58.7% in the preseason)
Baylor: 77.3% (76.4% in the preseason)
Kansas: 71.3% (71.9% in the preseason)
Cincinnati: 80.0% (82.7% in the preseason)

Odds of a Special Season

BYU is coming off back-to-back double-digit win seasons. BYU is looking to win double-digit games again and win the Big 12 conference. What are the odds that BYU can win 10 games or more in the regular season?

6 wins or more - 98.9%
7 wins or more - 94.4%
8 wins or more - 82.2%
9 wins or more - 59.3%
10 wins or more - 31.2%
11 wins or more - 10.0%
12 wins (undefeated) - 1.3%

FPI Rankings

BYU improved one spot in the FPI power rankings following the win over Utah Tech. The Cougars moved from no. 20 to no. 19, leapfrogging Michigan who needed a miracle to beat Western Michigan.

Texas Tech, the highest-rated team in the league, dropped from 10 to 12 after a mediocre showing in week one.

Texas Tech - 12
BYU - 19
Utah - 23
Kansas State - 32
Arizona State - 37
Baylor - 38
Arizona - 39
Houston - 41
Cincinnati - 43
Colorado - 47
TCU - 48
UCF - 49
Kansas - 52
Iowa State - 68
West Virginia - 69
Oklahoma State - 72

Conference Title Hopes

BYU's conference title odds increased following Tech's drop in the FPI ratings. BYU, Utah, Kansas State, and Arizona State saw their chances to win the league increase the most.

Texas Tech - 37.8%
BYU - 18.4%
Utah - 10.3%
Kansas State - 6.6%
Arizona State - 3.6%
Arizona - 3.4%
Baylor - 3.3%
Houston - 3.1%
Cincinnati - 3.1%
UCF - 3.0%
Colorado - 2.2%
Kansas - 2.0%
TCU - 1.9%
West Virginia - 0.5%
Iowa State - 0.4%
Oklahoma State - 0.4%

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU's College Football Playoff odds improved slightly, driven by their increased odds to win the league. Remember, the winner of the Big 12 this season will receive an automatic invitation to the 12-team playoff.

The Red Raiders saw their playoff hopes go from 57.4% to 48.0%.

Texas Tech - 48.0%
BYU - 26.8%
Utah - 16.4%
Kansas State - 10.8%
Arizona State - 6.1%
Arizona - 5.7%
Cincinnati - 5.5%
Houston - 5.4%
UCF - 4.7%
Colorado - 4.2%
Baylor - 4.0%
Kansas - 3.3%
TCU - 2.2%
Iowa State - 0.7%
West Virginia - 0.7%
Oklahoma State - 0.4%

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