FPI Predicts BYU vs UCF, Updates BYU's Conference Title Odds

BYU QB Bear Bachmeier against Cincinnati | BYU Photo

The stakes couldn't have been higher for BYU's game at Cincinnati. Thanks to a gritty road win, BYU will return home to face a UCF for a game with Big 12 title implications. If the Cougars win, they will be in the Big 12 title game and they will stay in the hunt for an at-large College Football Playoff berth. The Knights have something to play for as well - they are one win away from bowl eligibility.

FPI gives BYU a 93.6% chance to beat UCF in Provo and advance to the Big 12 title game. In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 10.9-1.1.

FPI also updated the Cougars' conference title odds.

Conference Title Hopes

In terms of conference title hopes, Texas Tech is still the front-runner according to FPI, as they should be. The Cougars are still second behind Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders are looking like runaway favorites. There are only four teams remaining with a mathematical chance to win the Big 12 title.

• Texas Tech - 69.0%
• BYU - 28.9%
• Utah - 1.6%
• Arizona State - 0.5%

FPI believes there is an 97.9% chance that either BYU or Texas Tech will win the league.

FPI Rankings

BYU moved down one spot in the FPI rankings after a win over Cincinnati. Texas Tech and Utah swapped spots in the FPI rankings as well.

BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech are the only Big 12 teams in the top 25 of FPI and all three are in the top 15.

• Texas Tech - 7
• Utah - 8
• BYU - 15
• Iowa State- 30
• Arizona - 36
• Iowa State - 47
• TCU - 40
• Cincinnati - 42
• Kansas State - 43
• Arizona State - 45
• Kansas - 49
• Baylor - 52
• Houston - 55
• UCF - 61
• Colorado - 69
• West Virginia - 72
• Oklahoma State - 120

There are six teams in the FPI top 35 and BYU is one of them. The Cougars played the other five teams in the top 35 and went 4-1 in those five games.

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU has a 48.6% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI - that is up from 36.7% last week. Unfortunately for BYU, they didn't get any help this weekend. If the playoff ended today, they would probably be the first team out of the College Football Playoff bracket.

BYU has the second best odds in the conference to make it to the CFP. If the Big 12 is going to get two teams into the playoffs, it will need Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama or Oregon to lose another game. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• Texas Tech - 89.5%
• BYU - 48.6%
• Utah - 16.8%
• Arizona State - 0.5%

Utah's College Football Playoff hopes dropped off a cliff this weekend, going from 38% to 17%.