FPI Predicts Rivalry Game Between BYU and Utah, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

BYU wide receiver Parker Kingston against Arizona | BYU Photo

After a double overtime win over Arizona on Saturday night, BYU returns home to take on rival Utah. The Cougars will look to win three consecutive games over the Utes for the first time since the early 1990's. More importantly, this is a game that will have major conference title implications. ESPN FPI cemented its prediction for BYU-Utah and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2025 season.

ESPN FPI expects a very close game. FPI gives BYU a 51.0% chance to go beat the Utes in Provo.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2025 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 9.6-2.4. Below are the game-by-game predictions. BYU is favored in every remaining game except Texas Tech per FPI.

• Utah - 51.0% (Down from 70.0% in the preseason)
• Iowa State - 55.1% (Up from 47.1%)
• Texas Tech - 36.0% (Down from 55.7%)
• TCU - 72.3% (Up from 68.1%)
• Cincinnati - 60.1% (Down from 60.5%)
• UCF - 87.0% (Up from 72.7%)

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 10 or more regular season wins. Winning 10 games would put BYU in contention for the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. FPI gives BYU a 54.9% chance to win 10 games or more - up from 45.2% last week - and a 3.8% chance to go undefeated.

7 wins or more - 99.8%
8 wins or more - 97.0%
9 wins or more - 84.0%
10 wins or more - 54.9%
11 wins or more - 22.0%
12 wins (undefeated) - 3.8%

FPI Rankings

BYU improved one spot to no. 19 in the FPI rankings after the win over Arizona. The Cougars are no longer the second highest ranked team in the Big 12. Utah leapfrogged BYU after a dominant win over Arizona State. Texas Tech has climbed all the way into the top 10 with a blowout win against Kansas.

BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech are the only Big 12 teams in the top 30 of FPI.

• Texas Tech - 10
• Utah - 14
• BYU - 19
• TCU - 31
• Iowa State - 34
• Kansas - 39
• Cincinnati - 41
• Kansas State - 43
• Arizona State - 44
• Baylor - 46
• Arizona - 49
• Colorado - 53
• UCF - 56
• Houston - 59
• West Virginia - 79
• Oklahoma State - 117

Conference Title Hopes

In terms of conference title hopes, Texas Tech is the clear front-runner according to FPI. The Red Raiders also have a favorable conference slate the rest of the way. BYU is second in line behind the Red Raiders. Here are the teams with the best chances to win the conference according to FPI.

• Texas Tech - 59.7%
• BYU - 16.8%
• Utah - 14.1%
• Cincinnati - 5.3%
• Arizona State - 1.0%
• Iowa State - 0.9%
• Baylor - 0.7%
• TCU - 0.7%
• Kansas State - 0.3%
• Houston - 0.2%

BYU and Texas Tech are the only two teams with more than a 15% chance to win the league according to FPI, and only four teams in the league have better than a 5% chance to win the conference.

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU has a 30.0% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. That's the second best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• Texas Tech - 70.8%
• BYU - 36.9%
• Utah - 22.6%
• Cincinnati - 6.5%
• Iowa State - 1.3%
• Arizona State - 1.1%
• TCU - 0.9%
• Baylor - 0.7%