FPI Updates BYU's Projected Win Total, Conference Title Odds

BYU wide receiver Parker Kingston against Iowa State | BYU Photo

Going into the season, FPI gave BYU a 4.3% chance to be 8-0 heading into the second bye week of the season. Fast forward to today and BYU has overcome the odds once to start the season 8-0. BYU has faced double-digit deficits in all three road conference games, yet BYU has this team-wide ability and belief to come back and make big plays in big moments.

After BYU's win over Iowa State, FPI updated its projected win total for BYU and it updated BYU's conference title odds. There is beginning to be some separation in the Big 12 standings and the FPI projections reflect that.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2025 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 10.6-1.4. Iowa State was the second most difficult game remaining on BYU's schedule per FPI. With that game in the rear-view mirror, FPI increased its projected win total for BYU. Below are the game-by-game predictions. BYU is favored in every remaining game except Texas Tech per FPI.

• Texas Tech - 41.8% (Down from 55.7% in the preseason)
• TCU - 75.2% (Up from 68.1%)
• Cincinnati - 56.7% (Down from 60.5%)
• UCF - 84.6% (Up from 72.7%)

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 10 or more regular season wins. Winning 10 games would put BYU in contention for the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well (although let's be real - the committee isn't letting in a two-loss Big 12 team that isn't a conference champion). FPI now gives BYU an 88.9% chance to win 10 games or more - up from 71.3% last week - and a 15.1% chance to go undefeated.

9 wins or more - 99.0%
10 wins or more - 88.9%
11 wins or more - 55.3%
12 wins (undefeated) - 15.1%

The game at Texas Tech is critical for BYU. A win over the Red Raiders would increase BYU's chances to win 11 or more games to 82.1%. 11 regular season wins would very likely get BYU in the championship game and even the playoff.

FPI Rankings

BYU jumped up three spots in the FPI rankings following a road win at Iowa State. Utah has claimed the top spot in the FPI rankings after blowing out Colorado (hint: algorithms like FPI love blowout wins). Texas Tech fell to no. 14 with a win over Oklahoma State.

BYU, Utah, and Texas Tech are the only Big 12 teams in the top 25 of FPI.

• Utah - 11
• Texas Tech - 14
• BYU - 16
• Cincinnati - 26
• Kansas State - 28
• TCU - 30
• Iowa State - 36
• Arizona State - 45
• UCF - 47
• Kansas - 48
• Arizona - 49
• Baylor - 50
• Houston - 52
• Colorado - 59
• West Virginia - 85
• Oklahoma State - 124

Conference Title Hopes

In terms of conference title hopes, BYU is now the front-runner according to FPI. However, the Red Raiders are right behind BYU. The winner of BYU-Texas Tech will take a commanding lead on the conference title race. The Red Raiders also have a favorable conference slate the rest of the way. The winner of Cincinnati-Utah next week will take over the third place spot for the best conference title odds. Texas Tech has a more favorable November schedule than BYU. BYU is their only real test remaining on the schedule. Here are the teams with the best chances to win the conference according to FPI.

• BYU - 39.0%
• Texas Tech - 34.7%
• Cincinnati - 12.7%
• Utah - 8.7%
• TCU - 1.6%
• Houston - 1.4%
• Kansas State - 1.4%

Despite a 4-1 conference record, FPI does not believe Houston is a legitimate threat to win the conference. However, until the Cougars suffer another conference loss, they are a team that could come in and steal a spot in the title game. Houston is one of just four teams with one loss or less in the Big 12 standings.

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU has a 69.4% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. That's the best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• BYU - 69.4%
• Texas Tech - 38.4%
• Cincinnati - 13.7%
• Utah - 11.6%
• Houston - 2.2%
• TCU - 1.8%
• Kansas State - 1.0%