No. 11 BYU is One Win Away from the Big 12 Title Game

BYU defense gets a fourth down stop against Cincinnati | BYU Photo

On Saturday night, no. 11 BYU needed to beat Cincinnati to maintain control of its own destiny. The Cougars delivered, pulling out a gritty win thanks to a career night from star running back LJ Martin. The Cougars are now one win away from a Big 12 title game appearance.

BYU came into the day with a chance to clinch a spot in the title game. To clinch a spot, however, BYU needed Colorado to beat Arizona State. Since the Sun Devils pulled out a road win over the Buffaloes, the Cougars will have to wait one more week to punch their ticket to Arlington.

Most importantly, BYU won't depend on anyone else going into the final week of the regular season. If BYU beats UCF, they will be in the Big 12 title game regardless of the other outcomes next weekend.

BYU clearly learned from its November collapse in 2024. Last year, BYU lost back-to-back games and lost control of its own destiny. The tiebreaker dominoes didn't go in BYU's favor, and the Cougars learned at halftime of their regular season finale that they had been eliminated from the Big 12 title race.

The Cougars will be heavily favored in the regular season finale against UCF. The Knights have been struggling of late, but they will be playing for bowl eligibility. The Knights escaped with an ugly 17-14 win over Oklahoma State to improve to 5-7. Going into Saturday, ESPN FPI gave BYU a 92.4% chance to win that game.

Texas Tech is the only other Big 12 team that controls its own destiny to the Big 12 title game. The Red Raiders are a road win over West Virginia away from securing a spot in the championship game. A BYU-Texas Tech rematch is by far the most likely matchup.

BYU will also be playing for a potential at-large bid in the College Football Playoff next weekend. The Cougars came into the weekend as the first team out of the College Football Playoff picture. All it would take is one upset next weekend to open up an at-large spot for BYU.

A win over UCF would also give BYU 11 regular season wins for the first time since the 1996 season. BYU will have a lot on the line when they host UCF next Saturday. The kickoff time and broadcast plans for that game have not been announced.