Preview and Prediction: Will BYU Avoid the Upset to Upstart ECU?

Before the season began, BYU’s matchup with ECU was circled as a potential trap game for the Cougars before heading into conference play. Now that the game is here, ECU should have BYU’s full attention. ECU comes into the contest at 2-1, following a tough opening game loss to NC State before beating FCS Campbell and Coastal Carolina by a combined 94-3. Those wins have generated quite a stir in Greenville, leading to a near sell-out against BYU to go with a pregame flyover and fireworks. Let there be no mistake, this is a big game. So how will BYU fare in such an environment against an ECU team that is largely unknown to BYU fans? Let's talk.

When ECU has the ball

ECU comes into Saturday having scored 94 points in their last two games on the arm of senior quarterback Katin Houser. Houser is 6th nationally in passing yards and 8th in attempts this season, while completing 71.6% of his passes. Digging in deeper, Houser has only been sacked once this season on 120 drop backs thanks in large part to his processing speed. Houser’s average time from snap to throw is 1.95 seconds, which leads the nation. That is both a function of Houser’s ability and offensive strategy.

ECU does not run the football well, ranking 110th in rushing success rate. Therefore, ECU uses the pass game as an extension of the run game, similar to what BYU saw against Colorado last year. 63% of Houser’s passes have traveled 10 yards or less at an 85% completion rate. Once he throws past 10 yards, Houser’s completion percentage dips to 55% with a 2:1 TD to INT ratio. ECU’s stagnant run game and quick passing game has exposed them to plenty of third and longs this season, which is where Houser really shows his superpower.

On 3rd/4th down and 9+ this season, Houser has completed 8/10 passes for 174 yards and a touchdown. BYU’s defense struggled on third down last season, ranking 86th nationally. Fortunately, that was the only thing they struggled with. This year, BYU is good at just about everything defensively, ranking first in yards, first in scoring, first in rushing, first in third down defense, and third in pass efficiency defense. While BYU hasn’t exactly played a murderers' row, BYU has been so dominant that they could allow 388 yards on Saturday and still be in the top five in the country. From a personnel perspective, BYU has the horses to slow down this ECU attack, from future NFL players Keanu Tanuvasa in the run game, to Faletau Satuala in the pass game and Isaiah Glasker in both. Whether or not they do comes down to execution.

When BYU has the ball

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier attempts a throw against Stanford | BYU Photo

Statistically speaking, BYU's offense has been every bit as dominant as the defense, but it just doesn’t feel that way does it. BYU has jumped out to large leads in both games so early that they offense has been able to go into “day one install” play-calling that has left everyone questioning whether the offense is actually good. In hindsight, BYU’s offense was more impressive than we thought against what seems to be a solid Stanford defense. Still, nothing felt easy as the offense is clearly trying to adjust to an inexperienced signal caller under center.

Here's what we know. We know LJ Martin, Carsen Ryan, and Chase Roberts are all-conference caliber playmakers. We know that BYU’s offensive line is an experienced, upper-classmen-laden group that generated as many yards before contact on Stanford and ECU as total yards per carry this season (3.1). What we don’t know is what Bear Bachmeier will look like in front of 50,000 screaming fans praying on his downfall. Until we know that, some apprehension is warranted.

We also know ECU is stout against the run, giving up just 2.9 yards per carry against a very good NC State run game in week one. In the pass game, though, they gave up 318 yards, 9.4 yards per attempt, and 2 pass plays of 40+ yards. They also struggled getting to the quarterback, producing pressure on just 27% of drop backs despite blitzing 37.8% of the time. They improved in both areas over their last two games, but also played 2 teams outside the top 125 in yards per play. In the end, there are a lot more unknowns in the matchup on this side of the ball than there are on the other, and whoever does win this matchup will likely win the game.

Prediction

BYU defensive Keanu Tanuvasa gets a sack against Stanford | BYU Photo

Katin Houser is likely the third best quarterback BYU will play this season behind only TCU’s Josh Hoover and TTU’s Behren Morton, but BYU has faced this before. Last season, BYU played four quarterbacks with a 150-pass efficiency rating or higher. Those quarterbacks combined for a pass efficiency rating of 124 against BYU. While this year's BYU secondary hasn’t faced a QB like Houser yet, this group is certainly no less talented or productive than it was a year ago. Even if Houser gets into a groove, ECU has yet to generate any kind of consistent run game, which likely won’t change against a suffocating BYU defensive front. In short, BYU wins this matchup because ECU is a one-dimensional offense against a two-dimensional defense. So long as BYU can tackle in space and limit the big plays, ECU will struggle to sustain multiple long drives.

BYU’s offense is a mystery, especially after an abysmal showing in the redzone, but we are in the camp that was more a function of bad luck on four plays and conservative play calling as opposed to incompetence. This offense has the talent to stack up against ECU, especially on the lines of scrimmage. The only question left to answer is the quarterback. We anticipate ECU will be aggressive, stacking the box and bringing pressure to limit BYU’s ground attack and rattle the true freshman Bachmeier. However, as we wrote yesterday, Bachmeier has played so much better than his box score. He is on target on 73% of passes and ranks in the top 15 in time to throw against pressure this season. If he continues that, BYU’s offense will move the ball fine.

Expect a sluggish start for the BYU offense, as the quarterback and offensive line get acclimated to the noise. BYU’s defense, though, will largely hold ECU at bay despite giving up a big play or two. Bachmeier, though, will have his first breakout moment by generating a 4th quarter touchdown drive to seal a two-score BYU win in Greenville.

BYU 27 - 13 ECU