Ranking the Most Likely Big 12 Championship Matchups

BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier against Cincinnati | BYU Photo

There is one more weekend of the Big 12 regular season before the Big 12 championship game in Arlington, Texas. There are four teams with a mathematical chance to play in the Big 12 title game: BYU, Texas Tech, Utah, and Arizona State. On Sunday, the Big 12 released the things that need to happen for each team to clinch a spot in the title game. In this article, we will rank the potential Big 12 title matchups by their likelihood according to ESPN FPI win probabilities.

First, here are the chances for each team to reach the title game. BYU is the team with the best odds to reach the title game at this point per FPI, followed closely by Texas Tech.

1. BYU: 96.9%
2. Texas Tech: 95.6%
3. Arizona State: 4.0%
4. Utah: 3.4%

BYU vs Texas Tech: 92.6%

By far the most likely matchup is BYU-Texas Tech. These are the two teams that control their own destiny, and they are both heavily favored this weekend. There is a path where BYU and Texas Tech could play each other even if they don't win this weekend. All it would take is for Arizona to beat ASU and these two teams would punch their tickets to Arlington.

Likelihood of BYU-Texas Tech matchup: 92.6%

BYU vs Utah: 3.4%

While a Holy War rematch is unlikely, it is the second most probable matchup in the Big 12 championship game. It would require a BYU win, a Utah win, a Texas Tech loss, and an ASU win. The only way for Utah to make the title game would be a rematch against BYU.

Likelihood of BYU-Utah matchup: 3.4%

Texas Tech vs ASU: 3.2%

This is the only Big 12 championship matchup that would exclude BYU. The Cougars would have to lose to UCF and ASU would have to beat Arizona.

Likelihood of ASU-Texas Tech matchup: 3.2%

BYU vs ASU: 0.8%

BYU-ASU is the least likely matchup in the title game, but it isn't impossible. It would require Kansas to beat Utah, ASU to beat Arizona, and West Virginia to beat Texas Tech.

Likelihood of ASU-BYU matchup: 0.8%