Cougs Daily

Rankings Update: Where Should BYU Find Themselves in the Inaugural CFP Rankings?

Joe Wheat|
BYU wide receiver Parker Kingston scores a touchdown against Iowa State
BYU wide receiver Parker Kingston scores a touchdown against Iowa State | BYU Photo

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BYU Cougars

Well, BYU won the bye week as chaos ensued in the top 10. BYU checked in at no. 8 in the latest AP poll with the first CFP rankings looming on Tuesday night. Where should BYU be? Let's see what the numbers say.

How the AP Voters view BYU

As the season evolves, the proper spot for BYU becomes more and more clear for the AP voters. Pollsters placed BYU from anywhere from 4th (4 voters) to 10th (2 voters). The most popular spot for BYU was where they ended up in the poll. 37 of 64 voters put BYU at 8th in their ballot following top 10 losses last week in Georgia Tech, Miami, and Vanderbilt. With the playoff rankings coming out Tuesday, the AP poll will be rendered largely irrelevant, but last year's initial rankings mirrored the AP poll almost identically. It will be interesting to see how much, if any, impact the Committee’s new metrics play a roll in Tuesday’s poll, or if the rankings will once again be a copy, paste of the AP.

How the predictive metrics view BYU

Definition: Predictive metrics measure absolute strength of a team relative to the average team. Similar ratings are used by sports books to generate betting spreads.

SP+: 16

FPI: 14

KFord: 17

FEI: 16

Average: 15.75 (Prior week: 17.75)

BYU was off this last weekend, yet the Cougars average power rating jumped half a point and two spots. Why? Absolute carnage around the sport led to teams like Vanderbilt and Tennessee falling below them, but also Utah’s continued dominance makes BYU look stronger after beating the Utes two weeks ago. Like it or not, these metrics matter to national perception because power ratings drive betting spreads and betting spreads write narratives. How many times have you heard BYU’s underdog status be used to show they aren’t that good? Don’t like it? Well BYU just needs to be more efficient.

Fortunately, BYU inching closer to the top 15 suggests that BYU has not only a playoff-caliber resume, but is a playoff-caliber team. Based on SP+, BYU would be a favorite on a neutral field over SEC teams like Tennessee and Vanderbilt and would be 3-point underdogs or less to Oklahoma, Georgia, and Alabama. So why is BYU a 10-point underdog this week? Because Texas Tech is power rated as the 4th best team in the country and is at home. The good news? BYU beat the #6 power-rated Utah just 2 weeks ago. As BYU continues to improve its rating every week, it’s still very possible that the predictive metrics are still catching up to the Cougs.  

What do the resume-based metrics say?

Definition: Resume based metrics compare the teams performance to how the average top 10 team would have performed against the same schedule. They measure not only strength of schedule, but how a team performs against that schedule.

SP+: 6

FPI (SOR): 4

KFord: 3

FEI: 4

Average: 4.25 (Prior: 4.25)

BYU’s resume didn’t change all that much this week as it’s hard to move up once you are already in the top five. That said, it will be fascinating how the Committee’s new strength of record metric compares to the ones outlined here. Based on the latest resume rankings, BYU should find itself in the top five of the committees inaugural ranking with Texas Tech (9th) and Utah (16th) lurking in playoff contention. The SEC leads all conferences with 5 teams in the top 10 of strength of record followed by the Big Ten with 3 and the Big 12 with 2. The ACC lags behind with its most deserving team being Louisville at 14th.

Conclusion

BYU wide receiver Parker Kingston scores a touchdown against Iowa State
BYU wide receiver Parker Kingston scores a touchdown against Iowa State | BYU Photo

For the fourth time in six years, BYU will find a home in the committee's rankings. The only question is where. The fortunate news is all three metrics are favorable for that spot to be well within the top 10. BYU’s resume is deserving of a playoff home game, if not a bye. Their power rating says that not only should BYU be there, but that they have a strong case to win a game or two. As if this Saturday needed any more hype, a win over Texas Tech would be arguably BYU’s best win in 30 years and make them a near lock to be playing come late December.

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Joe Wheat
JOE WHEAT

Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.

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