Score Prediction for No. 11 BYU at Cincinnati

BYU is two wins away from the Big 12 championship game. On Saturday night, the Cougars face a big challenge at Cincinnati. The Bearcats, who will be playing a night game at home for the first time since joining the Big 12, are looking to keep their conference hopes alive.

This game is going to come down to BYU's defense and its ability to slow down the Cincinnati rushing attack. The Bearcats rank third nationally in rushing success rate. Success rate essentially measures the ability of an offense to stay ahead of, and move, the chains. When Cincinnati is moving the football on the ground, they are a very hard offense to stop. They are also capable of scoring very quickly.

If BYU is able to slow down the run and force Brendan Sorsby to beat them with his arm, BYU has a great chance to win this game by multiple scores. Sorsby is as good as any quarterback in the country in terms of making big-time throws - he ranks 7th nationally in big-time throw rate. However, he also ranks 121st nationally in accuracy rate. The boom-or-bust nature of Sorsby's passing abilities can make it hard for Cincinnati to consistently move the chains. If BYU can slow down the run on early downs, the BYU defense could string stops together.

On offense, BYU should be able to move the football. The Cincinnati defense ranks 120th in quality drive rate allow. They allow a lot of yards, but they are tough to score on in the redzone. This might be a game where the BYU offense needs to outscore Cincinnati. If their performance against TCU is any indication, they are certainly capable of doing that. BYU scored on its first seven drives against TCU. In fact, the Cougars didn't punt until the game was well out of reach.

BYU's offense is at its best when they are building off the run game. However, this is a game where Bear Bachmeier should be able to have a lot of success through the air. Cincinnati's defense is one of the worst nationally in terms of pressuring opposing quarterbacks. It's for that reason that they rank 101st in success rate against the pass. Bachmeier bounced back from his worst performance of the season against Texas Tech with perhaps the best performance of the season against TCU.

The BYU offense will roll and the BYU defense will string together enough stops to give BYU a two-score lead. The difference in this game is the Cougars' experience in November. BYU learned hard lessons a year ago that Cincinnati is currently learning. BYU keeps Cincinnati at arm's length in the fourth quarter and maintains control of its own destiny.

BYU 34 | Cincinnati 24

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