Seven Takeaways From BYU's Complete Team Win Over TCU

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I can’t say I’ve seen a lot of wins like BYU’s beatdown of TCU Saturday. From start to finish, BYU boat raced the Horned Frogs in a game where the game-clinching score came with 10 minutes to go in the second quarter. It was refreshing, honestly. BYU has had a knack for close games this year but finally looked like the team we all thought they were after a tough loss last week. Here are seven things that win taught us.
1. BYU had earned a win like this

It had been a long time since BYU had looked like this against a power conference team, and they looked like it for a full 60 minutes. BYU has blown out power conference teams before but rarely has it been against a team of TCU’s quality. Coming in, TCU was a top 30 team in FPI and FEI, and BYU made them look like the scout team. BYU finished +31 in points, +35% in available yards, +18% in success rate, and +15 in time of possession. BYU looked stronger, faster, and more athletic than a TCU program that had been in a different class than BYU for nearly 20 years. No longer. But frankly, it felt like BYU was due for a game like this. This team has always been better than its scoring margin this season, but it’s nice for the scoreboard to finally show that.
2. A moment of poetic justice
The year is 2023. BYU is getting their doors blown off by a Josh Hoover led TCU, but is driving down in hopes to make an embarrassing outing a little less so. On 4th and inches on TCU's 15, and BYU's moral victory hanging in the balance, BYU runs a QB sneak that loses a yard. Frankly, it was a pathetic moment, but one that was instructive for the BYU football program. That play was my “Welcome to the Big 12” moment. It was the first time I realized that BYU either didn’t have the bodies or the mentality to compete at this level… yet.
Fast forward two years and it’s TCU driving to make a four-possession game a three-possession game late in the fourth quarter. They also faced a 3rd & 1 deep in BYU territory, ran a QB sneak, and lost yardage. They called a time out and proceeded to go false start, false start, sack on 4th down. That was my second "Welcome to the Big 12" moment. The moment where it cemented that BYU had physically and mentally evolved into the top class of this league. We had seen this spot before. This game had all the potential to be a Kansas type game for BYU: a hangover spot against a team better than their record. But this year, BYU responded by playing its best game of the season, and cemented itself as a certified “Progrum” in the Big 12.
3. Bear Bachmeier’s bounceback game has been a microcosm of his historic season

One of the Hallmarks of Bear Bachmeier this season is that he rarely makes a mistake twice in a row. Texas Tech was easily the worst game of his young career, and he responded with by far his best. Bachmeier was unbelievable against TCU, completing 70% of his passes with an average depth of target of over 10 yards. His on-target percentage of 86.2% was the highest of any BYU quarterback against an FBS opponent since Zach Wilson went for 96% against Louisiana Tech in 2020. His QBR of 93.2 was the second highest in the country Saturday behind only Georgia’s Gunnar Stockton, and he now the 15th best quarterback in the country in that metric.
Visually, that is as effortless as I’ve seen a QB go for 355 total yards look on a P4 defense in a very long time. Maybe ever. Bachmeier made every throw, never put the ball in danger, and was his usual self as a runner. If this is the player that Bachmeier is, he will be generational at BYU.
4. This was BYU’s offense at its finest

Again, we need to revisit the quality of BYU’s opponent here. Coming into Saturday, TCU ranked 28th in yards per play allowed and ranked 31st in FEI’s defensive efficiency, and BYU looked like it was running against air. Through three quarters, BYU scored 37 points, gained 88% of available yards, averaged 7.1 yards per play, and had 27 first downs on 62 plays. BYU's first seven drives went field goal, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, field goal, touchdown, and honestly, BYU still left points on the field. At this point, it's fair to say that that showing at Texas Tech says a lot more about Tech’s defense than BYU’s offense. Even with the Tech game, BYU still has the 16th most efficient offense in the country and has moved the ball at will against every other team they’ve played. Simply put, ARod and company have been in their bag and are just now hitting their ceiling.
5. BYU's pass rush is finally coming along

After a slow start to the season, BYU is finally starting to get after the quarterback. Over their last three games, BYU has recorded 12 sacks, 10th best nationally over that span. BYU's pass rush now ranks 21st nationally in sacks, up 87 spots from where they were a year ago. BYU's pass rush generated pressure on 52% of dropbacks - despite blitzing just 19% of dropbacks - thanks to a complete team effort from BYU's defensive line. Seven different BYU defensive lineman had a pressure in this game. DT Keanu Tanuvasa led all players with four pressures, a sack and a QB hit. Perhaps the most intriguing players, though, were a pair of underclassmen that are starting to make noise. Sophomore Tausili Akana and freshman Nusi Taumoupeau both recorded multiple pressures and a sack, with Taumoupeau dominating TCU's right tackel for the game-closing takedown.
6. BYU’s safeties rule so hard

BYU's pass rush certainly helped, but BYU's secondary had the nation’s 9th leading passer in Josh Hoover in an absolute torture chamber. Hoover's 92.9 passer rating was just the second sub 100 efficiency outing in 31 career games. The freeze frame of Hoover wagging a finger in the face of his number one receiver should be hung in the DB meeting room as the latest entry in Gilford's Graveyard.
Today, though, we need to highlight BYU's safeties. Faletau Satuala makes playing football look so easy that he repeatedly lets the receiver catch the football before intercepting it just to challenge himself. Tanner Wall deservedly found the endzone for the first time with a face full of turf and a heart full of venom. This season, Wall and Satuala both rank in the top 25 of all P4 safeties in coverage per PFF, and top 6 in the Big 12. The pair has now scored more touchdowns (2) than they’ve allowed this season (1) and have 6 interceptions between them. There is a really good argument that BYU should have two All-Big 12 safeties on their hands.
7. No matter what the committee says, this is a playoff team
As it stands today, BYU needs help to get into the College Football playoff, but they really shouldn’t. BYU’s strength of record is up to 6th nationally following the win as wins over ECU, Utah, and Arizona continue to age with grace. No other team in the country has more wins over bowl teams than BYU (5), while also having a tougher strength of schedule today than Ole Miss, Notre Dame, and Oregon. When the rankings come out Tuesday, BYU will likely find themselves on the outside looking in after Oklahoma’s win over Alabama, and when they do, it will be an outrage.
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Joe Wheat has covered BYU since 2020. He specializes in passionate opinions fueled by statistics and advanced analytics. Joe’s goal in writing is to celebrate the everyday fan by understanding what they are feeling and giving them the data to understand why.